NFIB Small Business Jobs Report
The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since 1974 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are drawn from NFIB’s membership. The survey was conducted in September and reflects the responses of 608 sampled NFIB members.
Oct. 2014 Small Business Jobs Statement from NFIB’s Chief Economist:
Stronger Hiring, But Expectations Remain Muted
NFIB’s chief economist William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following statement on the September 2014 job numbers:
“NFIB owners increased employment by an average of 0.24 workers per firm in September (seasonally adjusted), the twelfth positive month in a row and the largest gain this year. Seasonally adjusted, 13 percent of the owners (unchanged) reported adding an average of 3.7 workers per firm over the past few months. Offsetting that, 10 percent reduced employment (up 1 point) an average of 2.4 workers, producing the seasonally adjusted net gain of 0.24 workers per firm overall, an historically large figure. Reductions in employment are becoming less frequent and smaller, but it was a surge in hiring that produced a stronger net gain in employment.
“The remaining 77 percent of owners made no net change in employment. Fifty percent of the owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and 42 percent (84 percent of those trying to hire or hiring) reported few or no qualified applicants for open positions.
“Twenty-one percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down 5 points, not a good sign for improvements in the unemployment rate. Fifteen percent reported using temporary workers, down a point.
“Job creation plans also faded however, suggesting weaker job creation ahead. The net percent of owners planning to increase employment fell 1 point to a seasonally adjusted net 9 percent after a 3 point decline in August. Not seasonally adjusted, 13 percent plan to increase employment at their firm (down 1 point), and 9 percent plan reductions (down 1 point).
“The economy is expected to grow at a 3 percent annual rate in the second half, but even if achieved, annual growth for 2014 will be only about 2.2 percent. The September NFIB data anticipate new jobs in the low 200,000 range and an uptick in the unemployment rate. Reports of past hiring were very strong, suggesting a good jobs number, but job openings and job creation plans faded, casting a shadow over the job market outcomes.”
Results of the full survey will be released on Tuesday, October 14, 2014.