NFIB Small Business Jobs Report
The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since 1974 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are drawn from NFIB’s membership. The survey was conducted in October 2015 and reflects the responses of 1,411 sampled NFIB members.
Reported small business job creation hardly stellar in October
After reaching the best levels of the year in September, hiring plateaued adding a net 0 workers per firm
NFIB’s chief economist William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following comments on NFIB’s October 2015 Jobs Report:
“Reported job creation came to a halt in October, with owners adding a net 0.0 workers per firm in recent months. Twelve percent (down 1 point) reported increasing employment an average of 3.6 workers per firm while 10 percent (up 2 points) reported reducing employment an average of 3.5 workers per firm.
“Fifty-five percent reported hiring or trying to hire (up 2 points), but 48 percent (87 percent of those hiring or trying to hire) reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Fourteen percent reported using temporary workers, unchanged.
“Twenty-seven percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, unchanged from September. This is a solid reading and suggests no significant change in the unemployment rate.
“A seasonally adjusted net 11 percent plan to create new jobs, down 1 point. Not seasonally adjusted, 14 percent plan to increase employment at their firm (down 1 point), and 9 percent plan reductions (up 1 point).
“A seasonally adjusted net 21 percent of owners reported raising worker compensation, down 2 points from the past few months. The net percent planning to increase compensation rose 1 point to a net 17 percent, still historically strong for this recovery. The percent of owners citing the difficulty of finding qualifed workers as their Most Important Business Problem fell 3 points to 13 percent, number three on the list of problems behind taxes and regulations and red tape. This suggests that employers will face continued wage and benefit cost pressure in order to attract and keep good employees.
“The Federal Reserve decided not to help the economy by surprising markets with no change in the Federal Funds rate in September, adding to the large cloud of uncertainty. Instead they indicated that China and other weakening countries needed Fed support along with domestic players threatened by the global slowdown. Those concerns are being “walked back” by FOMC members in the face of widespread criticism. Living in their world of models, Quantitvie Easing is supposed to work, hoarding trillions of dollars of risk free assets is supposed to be a “positive”. For some FOMC members, reality has not yet set in. GDP growth languished in Q3, and will not impress in Q4. The industrial sector is weakening and the small business sector has not returned to its historical role in the production of GDP and jobs. The unemployment rate will likely remain unchanged and job creation will rise to the 170,000 level, hardly a stellar performance.”
Results of the full survey will be released on Tuesday, November 10, 2015.
Expected Jobs Numbers: