Uncertainty Index Methodology



The Uncertainty Index is calculated by summing the percent of “don’t know” and “uncertain” responses for each of the following six questions.

1. Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small business to expand substantially?
  1. Yes 
  2. No
  3. Uncertain


2. About the economy in general, do you think that six months from now general business conditions will be better than they are now, about the same, or worse?
  1. Much better
  2. Somewhat better
  3. About the same
  4. Somewhat worse
  5. Much Worse
  6. Don’t know
3. Overall, what do you expect to happen to the real volume (number of customers, unites, hours billed, etc.) of goods and/or services that you will sell during the next three months?
  1. Go up a lot
  2. Go up a little
  3. Stay the same
  4. Go down a little
  5. Go down a lot
  6. Don’t know
4. In the next three months, do you plan to increase or decrease the total number of people working for you?     
  1. Increase
  2. Keep the same
  3. Decrease
  4. Don’t know
5. Do you expect to find it easier or harder to obtain your required financing during the next three months?
  1. Easier
  2. Same
  3. Harder
  4. Don’t know
6. Looking ahead to the next three to six months, do you expect to make any capital expenditures for plant and/or physical equipment?
  1. Yes
  2. No
  3. Don’t know



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