After a period of relative peace, small business prepares for a year of conflict
State Director Thor Stacy reports from Juneau on the 2024 session of the Alaska State Legislature.
Not only is 2024 an election year with 50 of the 60 legislative seats up for grabs, but also it will be the first re-election after redistricting, the second cycle with ranked-choice voting, and it will be without campaign contribution limits.
Gov. Mike Dunleavy is not up for re-election, but we can expect a strong contest for Alaska’s sole U.S. Hose seat, with the incumbent, Mary Peltola, being vulnerable and picked by national pundits to lose to our seated Lt. Governor Nancy Dahlstrom.
Of course, we will have a presidential election that will likely have larger impacts on Alaska than any other election contest with the governor being out of cycle. Anchorage’s mayor Dave Bronson will also be vying for re-election. This contest will be decided partially or wholly during the legislative session depending on whether or not a runoff is required, and it almost certainly will be if the four current candidates maintain their candidacy. This article on the Anchorage race for mayor is worth a read, as is this article about Mary Peltola’s race.
Legislative Priorities
From a big picture point of view, the Legislature will be grappling with some difficult questions this session.
- First and always foremost, they will be considering the governor’s budget. Not much has changed on this front, the governor has proposed an austere budget that still requires a draw from depleted state savings or a reduction in the PFD to fund his proposal.
- A determined fight over education funding is once again brewing, you might recall last year the Legislature considered increasing the base student allocation and then declined to do so in favor of a large one-time funding boost. The Governor vetoed half of the funds appropriated in the one-time increase.
- The rail belt utilities are projected to run short of natural gas, all of which is currently produced in Cook Inlet, by 2027 with Homer Electric’s gas contract expiring in a few months. The governor will be introducing legislation to reduce royalties in the Cook Inlet basin in an effort to stimulate production in the near-term.
- Royalty reduction for natural gas will be debated against the back drop of legislation that seeks to impose a corporate income tax for oil and gas entities organized as LLCs or S Corps who do not currently pay the rate levied at C Corps. Hilcorp, Alaska’s largest oil producer and near monopolizer of Cook Inlet gas production, is organized as a S Corp.
- Campaign contribution limits will be considered by the Legislature, and there will be hearings discussing the impacts of ranked choice voting.
Ballot Initiatives
Small business is threatened by the minimum wage ballot initiative, which you can read more about here. You can also review the other pending ballot initiatives on the division of elections site. Signatures are due in early February.
The polling numbers indicate strong support for an increase to the minimum wage, and the ballot initiative strategists are counting on that support to implement mandatory sick leave and captive audience language, the other two prongs of the trident.
A Year of Conflict
We have been in a prolonged period of relative peace. Small business in Alaska was held up as the crown jewel of our state and its economy during COVID, and many favorable decisions and actions were made with small business being the primary consideration. This period of relative peace has passed, we are looking ahead to a year of conflict.
