Real sales expectations, job-creation and business-expansion plans improved remarkably
PHOENIX, July 14, 2020—The engine of the American economy is trying its best to start smoothly humming again, according to today’s release of the latest Small Business Economic Trends report (also called the Optimism Index) from NFIB, the nation’s leading small-business association. Now, can the surge in coronavirus cases abate long enough to take that engine for a test run on the road to recovery?
“The positive expectations we are seeing from small-business owners have risen from the basement and are on the First Floor, but they could easily fade depending on health conditions and regulatory actions on the ground,” said Chad Heinrich, Arizona state director for NFIB. “They are creating jobs and re-hiring workers. Hiring is the largest financial decision most small business owners make. For these small business owners to be successful, predictability at all levels of government is key as we continue to grapple with health conditions due to COVID-19.”
Eight of the 10 Index components rose in June, most sharply of all in the ‘real sales expectations’ component, followed distantly but solidly by ‘job openings,’ ‘good time to expand,’ and ‘job creation plans.’ The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes improved 37 points to a net 13% of owners. The historic 61-point drop over March and April has been followed by a 55-point increase over the past 2 months as owners are expecting higher sales with business re-openings.
The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the 4th quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are drawn from a random sample of NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in April 2020. For more information about NFIB, please visit NFIB.com.
“Small businesses are navigating the various federal and state policies in order to reopen their business and they are doing their best to adjust their business decisions accordingly,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “We’re starting to see positive signs of increased consumer spending, but there is still much work to be done to get back to pre-crisis levels.”
Did you catch last Friday’s release of NFIB’s 22-question poll of its members? Here are six highlights:
Q4 Have you spent all of your [Paycheck Protection Program] loan funds yet?
56% 1. Yes
44% 2. No
Q17 Do you anticipate needing additional financial support over the next 12 months?
46% 1. Yes
55% 2. No
Q13 Is your business currently impacted by a postponement or reversal of state or local reopening actions?
47% 1. Yes
53% 2. No
Q15 Does your business require employees or customers to wear a face covering?
53% 1. Yes
47% 2. No
Q16 If so, do you find it difficult enforcing the face covering requirement?
46% 1. Yes
54% 2. No
Q20 How long will you be able to operate your business under current economic conditions?
1% 1. Less than 1 month
3% 2. 1-2 months
19% 3. 3-6 months
21% 4. 7-12 months
57% 5. More than 12 months
Keep up with the latest on Arizona small-business at www.nfib.com/arizona or by following NFIB on Twitter @NFIB_AZ
For more than 77 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since its founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.
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