Welcome to the December 15-19 edition of the Main Street Minute from your small-business-advocacy team in Sacramento.

What’s Ahead in the 2026 Election?

A ballot initiative and candidate rundown on the upcoming 2026 election was presented to NFIB California’s political action committee (NFIB CA PAC) last Wednesday, December 10.

Special guests Ben Granholm, a director at Swing Strategies, one of the state’s top consulting firms on ballot initiatives, Marty Wilson, a principal at AX Advocacy whose knowledge of candidate races spans four decades, and Sharon Sussin, NFIB’s National Political Director, provided PAC members with the very latest information on how next year’s election is taking shape.

John Kabateck, state director for NFIB in California, and Tim Taylor, NFIB California’s policy director, also contributed their insights. NFIB CA PAC will be making endorsements of candidates for the California Legislature and on ballot measures. NFIB Fed PAC will be making endorsements in congressional races.

“The high caliber of presenters we had is a direct reflection of the high regard small business owners are held in by the political world,” said Kabateck. “They value and know well The Power of the Small Business Voice.”

The day before the PAC board meeting, Swing Strategies presented one of its highly regarded webinars on the ballot initiative landscape heading into 2026. Granholm and Vice President Tino Rossi’s 44-minute presentation can be viewed here.

Reports and Studies

The last few weeks have been big ones for the release of reports and studies of interest to small businesses.

Most important (we would obviously say this) was Tuesday’s (December 9) release of NFIB’s monthly Small Business Optimism Index, showing optimism among Main Street entrepreneurs edging up.

“So glad to see NFIB’s last Small Business Optimism Index report of the year end on a positive note,” said NFIB California State Director John Kabateck in a news release. “It’s now been more than year since the Index finally turned a corner from running 34 consecutive months below its 52-year average to hovering above the average since November 2024. Congress making the 20% Small Business Tax Deduction permanent instead of letting it laps at the end of the month was a huge shot in the arm for small businesses. The California Legislature could add a booster shot by paying off its $21 billion unemployment insurance loan it has with the federal government, which would relieve small business owners of having to pay the increasing interest charges.”

But just hold on!

This is California, so any slight bit of good news is quickly mauled by bigger bad news.

The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is also out with its latest Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government. Important takeaway: “Californians name the cost of living and economic conditions as the most important issue facing the state today. About half think that California is generally going in the wrong direction and 71 percent say California will have bad times financially during the next 12 months. About two in three adults say that housing affordability is a big problem in their part of California and 45 percent say that housing costs are a financial strain on them. About three in four are less comfortable making a major purchase, like a home or car, or household purchases now than they were six months ago.”

The California Center for Jobs & The Economy is out with its latest look at energy prices. One nugget of information worth noting, “As we have discussed in prior reports, in the absence of current Energy Commission data, we have begun our own estimates using the Commission factors and the new OPIS data. In November, $1.43 (30.9%) of the price of a gallon of regular gasoline was paid to cover state, local, and federal taxes and fees.”

Last Tuesday (December 10), the American Tort Reform Foundation came out with its annual list of Judicial Hellholes and guess which area of the nation took top honors—Los Angeles!

In a news release sent by NFIB California, Move over Dodgers, Lawyers are No. 1 in This League, State Director John Kabateck said, “In a state where the trial-lawyer lobby has an outsized influence, you can’t help but feel that lawsuit abuse seems to be the standard operating procedure of our judicial world. If you want a sterling example of how the shakedown mill works, look no further than Senate Bill 222 (Wiener), which would have opened up whole new opportunities for litigation under the guise of climate change; Senate Bill 799 (Allen), which would have greatly expanded the False Claims Act to include confidential records; and another Wiener proposal, Senate Bill 310, which would have undone all the reforms to the Private Attorneys General Act (PAGA). Fortunately, all three bills failed to pass.”

Still Like to Help?

If you haven’t already, let your state senator and state assembly member know: It’s time to repay the state’s unemployment insurance debt now.

California borrowed money from the federal government for the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program during the COVID pandemic and still has an outstanding loan balance of $21 billion.

NFIB members have said the added costs are forcing them to increase costs, reduce employees, forgo a paycheck, and cut spending across the board. Some have said they are considering closing shop or moving to another state. Cost increases will continue to add up as California does nothing to address the UI debt. Your lawmakers need to hear complaints from you.

Click here to send your message directly to your legislator.

Calendar

— January 5, 2026: Legislature reconvenes

— January 7: NFIB California Leadership Council meets

— January 8: Gov. Gavin Newsom to give State-of-the-State address

National

Highlights from Federal Government Relations Principal Louis Bertolotti’s weekly report

— NFIB issued a key vote alert for HR 3898, the PERMIT Act, which would codify the longstanding Waters of the United States (WOTUS) exclusions from federal jurisdiction. The legislation passed the House 221-205.

— In a press release highlighting the ADA 30 Days to Comply Act, Rep. Mike Lawler (NY-17) quotes Jeff Brabant, Vice President of Federal Government Relations: “Small businesses are all too often the target of sue and settle schemes … This common-sense legislation will allow small businesses the opportunity to fix minor issues before being slapped with major lawsuits.”

— The Research Center released the November SBET survey, which showed that the Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.8 points to 99.0, remaining above its 52-year average of 98. Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said, “Although optimism increased, small business owners are still frustrated by the lack of qualified workers.”

— The 76th episode of the Small Business Rundown podcast was released on new federal tax laws. It featured lawyer Stephen Kenney and Beth Milito of the NFIB Small Business Legal Center.

Next Main Street Minute: December 22. All Main Streets Minutes can be found on the NFIB website here. Pull down the California tab in the upper-right-hand corner.