The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), Maryland’s leading small business advocacy organization, released a new report highlighting the economic impact on Maryland’s small business community if House Bill 1229/Senate Bill 886, legislation that would raise the state’s minimum wage, were enacted and implemented.

“One-size-fits-all mandates are bad for the economy and Maryland’s small businesses,” said Mike O’Halloran, NFIB Maryland State Director. “This study shows the direct impact of increasing the state’s minimum wage requirement – which is a bleak outlook of small business job losses. Small employers have been managing ongoing hiring challenges and now is not the time to further strain the Maryland job market.”

Key findings include:

• Maryland would lose up to 84,000 jobs if HB 1229/SB 886 were implemented.
• HB 1229/SB 886 would lead to a loss of $15 billion in economic input by 2035.
• Small businesses with fewer than 500 employees would bear 50% of job losses.
• The minimum wage increase would disproportionately impact two industries: retail/wholesale trade and construction.
• About 21,000 jobs lost by 2035 are attributed to those two industries (25% of the total job loss).

HB 1229/SB 886 would raise the state’s minimum wage from $15 per hour to $25 per hour by 2032 for small businesses and by 2030 for all other businesses with fixed increments; after which it will be tied to the rate of inflation. It would also eliminate the tipped minimum wage by 2032 for all businesses.

NFIB’s monthly jobs report highlights the already tight labor market, with the January report showing 50% of owners reporting hiring or trying to hire in January. Of those hiring, 88% of owners reported few or no qualified applicants.

View the full report here.

TAKE ACTION: Tell your legislators to say NO to a detrimental minimum wage increase!

Methodology

This economic impact analysis uses the Business Size Impact Model (BSIM), a variation of the PI+ model developed by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) that accounts for differences among U.S. businesses differentiated by employee-size-of-firm. BSIM is a dynamic, multi-region model of the U.S. economy consisting of an input-output framework that uses a general equilibrium methodology to forecast the estimated economic impact of proposed policy and legislative action. The model simulates the impact of the mandate over a 10-year period from 2026 to 2035.