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Legislators’ Eyes on May 14 Revenue Forecast

Legislators’ Eyes on May 14 Revenue Forecast

April 25, 2025

Will it be a green light to spend, or a red one to kill bills?

State Director Anthony Smith reports from Salem on the small-business agenda

April 25 was Day 95 of the 160-day 2025 Oregon Legislative Session. Committee action has slowed a bit since the First Chamber deadline passed on April 9. Daily floor sessions have since been the focus as both chambers of the Legislature work through a long list of bills that were up for a final vote in their respective chambers of origin.

As we head into the home stretch of this year’s session, House bills assigned to Senate policy committees will need to be scheduled for a work session by May 9 and voted out of committee by May 23 – and likewise for Senate bills assigned to House policy committees. Rules, revenue, and joint committees are exempt from these deadlines (but have their own deadlines in some cases).

What will happen over the next two months is largely dependent on the next quarterly revenue forecast, which will occur on May 14. If a lot more tax dollars are projected to come into the state’s coffers than previously expected, many more bills that have a cost to state government are likely to become law. If state revenues are down, however, fewer bills are likely to pass, which could cause tempers to flare as many state legislators see their legislative priorities become casualties of the chopping block.

Here’s what’s been happening in the Oregon Capitol – and what’s coming up:

NFIB Small Business Day!

April 23 was NFIB’s annual Small Business Day at the Capitol. NFIB members from across the state gathered in Salem to discuss pending legislation, to hear the inside scoop directly from pro-small-business lawmakers, and to promote NFIB’s legislative agenda to all 90 members of the Oregon Legislature.

Rep. E. Werner Reschke (R-Klamath Falls) joined us to discuss his experiences as the Vice-Chair of the House Committee on Revenue. He spoke about the upcoming revenue forecast and how he expects things to play out in the coming weeks and months as we lead up to the Legislature’s adjournment on June 29. NFIB members shared their stories about how Oregon’s high taxes continue to impact their businesses.

Sen. Bruce Starr (R-Dundee) discussed his impressions of this year’s Legislature after working for the last 10 years in the private sector. Before that, he served in the state Legislature for two decades when politics were less polarized, and compromise was more common. In his role as Co-Vice-Chair of the Joint Committee on Transportation, Sen. Starr shared his thoughts on how the Legislature is taking on the issue of transportation funding this session. NFIB members shared their concerns with the Legislature asking Oregonians to pay more for transportation infrastructure without additional accountability from state agencies.

Rep. Ed Diehl (R-Scio) shared his background as a former small business owner and his current role as the Vice-Chair of the House Committee on Economic Development, Small Business, and Trade. Also serving on the House Committee on Behavioral Health and Health Care, Rep. Diehl heard from NFIB members about ever increasing health care costs and the lack of access to affordable health insurance options for small business owners and their employees.

Following these three meetings with legislators, NFIB members spent the rest of the afternoon distributing our “NFIB Oregon 2025 Top Legislative Priorities” handout to all 90 legislative offices (more info directly below).

To everyone who participated in our Small Business Day activities, thank you!

NFIB Oregon 2025 Top Legislative Priorities

NFIB Supports HB 3934 – Estate Tax Portability for Surviving Spouses
More than 20 bills have been introduced this year to eliminate, reform, and/or modernize Oregon’s estate tax. NFIB is supporting nearly all of them – and HB 3934 has broad bipartisan, bicameral support this year. Oregon’s $1 million exemption threshold is the lowest in the nation. Short of joining three-fourths of other states by eliminating this tax, Oregon should pass HB 3934 and then raise the exemption threshold and index it to inflation going forward.

NFIB Opposes SB 426 – Property Owner and Contractor Wage Claim Liability
This legislation would make property owners and general construction contractors liable for the unpaid wages of their subcontractors and would establish a presumption that, in any legal action for unpaid wages, a person performing labor on a construction project is an employee rather than an independent contractor. SB 426 applies to non-union workers only.

NFIB Opposes SB 916 – Unemployment Insurance (UI) Benefits for Striking Workers
Allowing UI benefits for workers who voluntarily leave their jobs to go on strike would not only add cost to the system, but it would also tip the balance in favor of unions during contract negotiations and lead to more strikes. Essentially, employers would be subsidizing union work stoppages and paying workers to go on strike – or worse, making small businesses pay for the labor disputes of their larger corporate competitors.

NFIB Opposes SB 174 – Additional Enforcement of Insurance Laws under UTPA
A new private right of action under Oregon’s Unlawful Trade Practices Act (UTPA) will lead to more lawsuits and increased costs for insurers. This creates market pressure to increase premiums for insurance customers. For many Oregon consumers and businesses, this would mean policyholders will have to pay more for the same coverage – and if they cannot afford to pay more, they risk leaving themselves under-insured.

NFIB Opposes HB 2548 & HB 3838 – Industry-Specific Labor Standards Boards
HB 2548 would create an Agricultural Workforce Labor Standards Board. HB 3838 would establish a Home and Community-Based Services Workforce Standards Board. Regardless of industry sector, it’s small business owners that are best situated to be responsive to the needs of their customers and employees, not an unelected board of appointees with no accountability to the people of Oregon.

Click here for a pdf of the above legislative priorities.

Up Next in the House Committee on Labor & Workplace Standards

Two of the issues above are likely to be scheduled for public hearings and work sessions in the House Committee on Labor and Workplace Standards within the next two weeks:

SB 916 (Unemployment Benefits for Striking Workers) is up for consideration first, with an informational meeting scheduled for April 28 and a public hearing scheduled for April 30. In addition to the NFIB Action Alert that is currently active for this bill, please consider participating in the public legislative process to have your voice heard. You can sign up to testify in person, virtually via Microsoft Teams, or you can submit written testimony that will be added to the public record on the bill.

It’s probable that SB 426 (Property Owner and Contractor Wage Claim Liability) will be scheduled for a public hearing the following week. An NFIB Action Alert is live right now on this bill too – so please consider contacting your state representative ASAP – even if you have already taken action by contacting your state senator several weeks ago when the bill was still under consideration by the Oregon Senate (where it passed by just one vote with bipartisan opposition!) You can also sign up to testify and/or submit written testimony on the bill once the public hearing is scheduled.

Prior Legislative Reports

April 12: Oregon Legislature Reaches Mid-Point of 2025 Session

March 21: Bills Look to Incentivize Litigation, End At-Will Employment

March 8: NFIB Testifies for Bill Correcting UI Tax Trap

February 14: Bad Age-Discrimination Bill Resurfaces. Flurry of Activity on Estate Tax

February 1: Oregon Legislators Begin Work on 2,500 Bills

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