January saw an increase in small business uncertainty, but overall optimism remained solid. NFIB also included new data in the Small Business Economic Trends report to provide a better representation of the small business job market.

NFIB’s new Small Business Employment Index measures changes in employment and compensation, using multiple jobs-related questions and data collected over the past 40 years to show the current state of the small business labor market.

Key findings include:

• January’s reading for the new Small Business Employment Index is at 101.6, above the historical average of 100. The index indicates a balanced labor market.  

• Small business optimism declined 0.2 points to 99.3 but remained above the 52-year average of 98. 

• The Uncertainty Index showed a significant increase of seven points, with a rise in owners reporting uncertainty about whether or not it’s a good time to expand their business as the primary contributor. 

• The cost or availability of insurance as small business’s single most important problem climbed four points, with 13% of owners reporting it as their top issue. This is the highest percentage since December 2018. 

• Labor quality as the top issue for small business declined for the third straight month, dropping three points since December.  

• The NFIB Research Center’s podcast, Small Business by the Numbers, analyzes key changes within the latest Small Business Economic Trends data, along with providing expert insight on the small business economy. Recent episodes cover the new Small Business Employment Index and the highlights, changes, and outlook for small businesses as they navigate the new year.  

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in January 2026.