Welcome to the January 20-23 edition of the Main Street Minute from your small-business-advocacy team in Sacramento. We took yesterday, January 19, off in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday.

Buddy, Can You Spare a Dime?

It ran to 16 pages, but you didn’t have to read further than the first three sections of the executive summary on Page 3 of the Legislative Analyst’s Overview of the Governor’s Budget to see California’s fiscal ship remains capsized and will be in that position for years into the future.

Here are the highlights of the summary, released last Monday (January 12). Bolded text added by NFIB:

“The administration projects the budget faces a roughly $3 billion deficit. This is lower than our November Fiscal Outlook estimate of an $18 billion deficit, for two offsetting reasons. First, and most importantly, the administration’s revenue estimate is considerably higher than ours because it does not incorporate the strong risk of a stock market downturn. Second, however, these higher revenues are offset by higher spending under the administration’s assumptions and estimates.

“Several historically reliable signs suggest the stock market is overheated and at high risk of reversing course into a downturn in the next year or so. Should a stock market downturn occur, income tax revenues would fall considerably. These risks are severe enough that not incorporating them into this year’s budget, as the Governor proposes, would put the state on precarious footing. Further amplifying this precariousness, even under the administration’s more optimistic revenues, the budget is only roughly balanced in the near term.

“Both our office and the administration expect the state to face multiyear deficits, with estimates ranging from $20 billion to $35 billion annually. These deficits are concerning for three reasons. First, after four years of projected deficits and a cumulative total of $125 billion in budget problems solved so far, the state’s negative fiscal situation is now chronic. Second, structural deficits have grown—our November outlook is the most negative forecast of the budget’s position since the pandemic. Finally, deficits have persisted even as the state’s economy and revenues have grown, underscoring that the problem is structural rather than cyclical. Taken together, these trends raise serious concerns about the state’s fiscal sustainability.”

California is broke by design.

Curious About This Year’s Ballot Initiatives?

From Tom Ross and Tino Rossi of Swing Strategies:

“A flurry of initiatives were filed in late 2025, and the race to collect enough valid signatures is well underway. Campaigns must gather 546,651 signatures for a statutory initiative and 874,641 for a constitutional initiative.

“Five measures have already surpassed the 25 percent mark in signature collection, with the Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Prop. 13 facing the earliest deadline on February 25. Another ten-plus initiatives, however, are in a sprint to meet the April 17 deadline to submit signatures and qualify for the November ballot.

“But what about the June ballot? Only legislatively referred measures are eligible, and the deadline for lawmakers to place items on that ballot is January 22.

“Tom Ross and Tino Rossi will discuss these developments and more during a Ballot Initiative Update on Monday, January 27, at 11:00 a.m. Register Today.”

Doing Business with the State

Today (January 20) from 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. the Department of General Services is hosting a free webinar on how small businesses can do business with the state of California and become a certified Small Business (SB) and Disabled Veteran Business Enterprise (DVBE). Learn more here.

Calendar

— March 26-April 6: Legislature on Spring Break

— May 29: Last day for bills to pass their house of origin

— June 15: Deadline (by midnight) to pass new state budget

— June 2: Primary Election for eight state constitutional offices, four Board of Equalization seats, all 52 congressional seats, all 80 assembly seats, and 20 (even-numbered districts) state senate seats. Governor’s proclamation here.

— July 2-August 3: Legislature on Summer Recess

— August 31: Legislature adjourns its 2026 session

— September 30: Last day for governor to sign or veto bills sent to him.

National

Highlights from Federal Government Relations Principal Louis Bertolotti’s weekly report

— NFIB released a statement urging Congress to pass the Credit Card Competition Act. NFIB President Brad Close said, “Small business owners pay exorbitant fees just to be able to accept credit cards from their customers and those costs have skyrocketed, becoming one of the top expenses small businesses manage each month.”

In a Truth Social post, President Trump encouraged support for the bill. Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) made remarks on the Senate Floor, sharing examples of NFIB members impacted by high swipe fees.

WWLP and Federal Newswire cited NFIB research in a segment regarding the proposed legislation.

— NFIB submitted testimony for the record to the U.S. House Subcommittee on Commerce, Manufacturing, and Trade to encourage Congress to advance the bipartisan REPAIR Act. The press release was issued ahead of a hearing entitled “Examining Legislative Options to Strengthen Motor Vehicle Safety, Ensure Consumer Choice and Affordability, and Cement U.S. Automotive Leadership.” Principal of Federal Government Relations Louis Bertolotti said, “Each second spent driving to a dealership or waiting for a repair is time not spent growing a business… In today’s fast-paced economy, small businesses simply cannot afford to waste these resources.”

Next Main Street Minute: January 19. All Main Streets Minutes can be found on the NFIB website here. Pull down the California tab in the upper-right-hand corner.