Last week, the New Hampshire Senate Ways & Means Committee adopted revenue estimates for Fiscal Years 2026-27. Their numbers came in about halfway between the House (lower) and Governor (higher).

Below is a rough look at each side’s revenue estimates:

Entity: FY 26-27 Total Gen/Ed; FY26-27 Total Biz Taxes

Governor: $6.4 billion; $2.45 billion

Senate: $6.1 billion; $2.3 billion

House: $5.9 billion; $2.16 billion

In comments to NH Journal this week, NFIB NH applauded the governor and legislative leaders for prioritizing fiscal responsibility and preserving business tax relief.

While lawmakers will deal with some difficult spending decisions as they complete the FY26-27 state budget, it’s imperative to preserve the hard-won business tax relief implemented over the past decade.

Behind the Revenue Estimates: The revenue estimates are heavily informed by the drop in Business Profits Tax and Business Enterprise Tax revenue in the current fiscal year. Revenue from the two taxes is down 15%, or -$156 million, below previous estimates for FY25.

Given the financial headwinds of the last few years plus the added uncertainty in the first quarter of this year, that’s not a huge surprise. Both Maine and Massachusetts have seen substantial drops in business tax revenue so far this year.

New Hampshire’s overall revenue picture is more stable. To date, total general and education fund revenue is down just $1.5%, or -$41.6 million. Business tax revenue shortfalls are offset by higher than projected revenue from insurance taxes, lottery proceeds, and investment income.

Governor Ayotte’s budget predicts a swift rebound in business tax revenue, recovering from a low point of $1.12 billion this year to $1.25 billion by FY27. Her revenue projections allow for a modest increase in state spending without tax increases.

See the chart on page three of April’s Monthly Revenue Focus for complete details: NHAS FY25 April Revenue Focus.

Next Steps: The Senate began building out its version of the budget and associated policy. They’ll need to finish up by early June.

From there, the House, Senate and Governor Ayotte will need to work out final details before the budget is passed and signed by the end of June.

Local Budget Caps: Several bills are moving toward the finish line that would enhance the ability to impose and enforce local government spending caps:

SB 105 (Sen. Keith Murphy) allows towns to adopt the same budget caps as cities, with a 60% vote required for approval of the cap and to override the cap.

HB 200 (Rep. Diane Pauer) amends the existing municipal budget cap to require 60% support to override.

HB 374 (Rep. Pauer) clarifies other elements of the existing municipal cap.

These proposals come in response to the rising property tax burden across the state.