Bleak Small Business Outlook Now in 20th Consecutive Month

September 12, 2023

Bleak Small Business Outlook Now in 20th Consecutive Month

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: John Kabateck, California State Director, John@Kabstrat.com or Tony Malandra, Senior Media Manager, Anthony.Malandra@nfib.org SACRAMENTO, Calif., Sept. 12, 2023—Twenty consecutive months and still running cold. That is the latest finding in today’s release of the monthly Small Business Economic Trends report (aka the Optimism Index) from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the nation’s largest and leading small-business-advocacy association. The SBET (Optimism Index) is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. The typical NFIB member employs between one and nine workers. This latest Index decreased in August to 91.3, the 20th consecutive month below the survey’s 49-year average of 98. NFIB’s SBET is the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy, used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation. The report is celebrating its 50th anniversary next month. Click here for a one-page history of the SBET (Optimism Index). “This is one of those times, oh, like the previous 19 other times I’m somewhat glad our Optimism Index is not broken down by state, because small business owners in California might skew it from a generally sad measurement to a borderline suicidal reading,” said John Kabateck, NFIB’s California state director. “Maybe an improved outlook will happen when the Legislature adjourns for the rest of the year this Thursday, but given its last-minute efforts to boost UI taxes on small business owners by extending unemployment benefits to those who choose to leave a job they have and its cavalier disregard to do anything to curb retail theft, I’m not predicting sunnier days lie ahead.” From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg “With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions discouraging, owners want to hire and make money now from strong consumer spending. Inflation and the worker shortage continue to be the biggest obstacles for Main Street.” Highlights from today’s report

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased in August to 91.3, the 20th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98.

Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months deteriorated seven points from July to a net negative 37%, however, 24 percentage points better than last June’s reading of a net negative 61% but still at recession levels.

Forty percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, down two points from July but remain historically high.

The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher decreased two points from July to a net negative 14%.

Keep up with the latest on California small-business news at www.nfib.com/california or by following NFIB on Twitter @NFIB_CA or on Facebook @NFIB.CA. ### For 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since its founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com. NFIB California 915 L. Street, Suite C-411 Sacramento, CA 95814 916-448-9904 www.nfib.com/CA Twitter: @NFIB_CA Facebook: @NFIB.CA