WASHINGTON, D.C. (Oct.14, 2025) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 2.0 points in September to 98.8. This was the first decline in three months, though it remains above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from August to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years. 

“Optimism among small business owners decreased in September,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations.” 

Key findings include: 

• Supply chain and inflation issues stood out as a key problem in the report. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 3 points from August to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted). A net 31% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices over the next three months, up 5 points from August. 

• Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input costs), up 3 points from August.  

• In September, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, up 10 points from August. 

• A net negative 7% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in September, down 7 points from August. This was the largest monthly decline in the survey’s history.  

• One bright spot was actual earnings changes (the net percent of owners reporting higher vs. lower profits), which increased three points in September, up to its highest level since December 2021. 

• The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 11 points from August to a net 23% (seasonally adjusted).  

• In September, 18% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 3 points from August and tying with taxes as the top single most important problem. 

As reported in NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted 32% of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in September, unchanged from August. The last time unfiled job openings fell below 32% was in July 2020. Of the 58% of owners hiring or trying to hire in September, 88% reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. A seasonally adjusted net 16% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, up 1 point from August and the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Hiring plans are at their highest level since January. 

Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners rose by 3 points from August to 11%. Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% reported raising compensation, up 2 points from August. A seasonally adjusted net 19% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down 1 point from August. 

Fifty-six percent of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, unchanged from August. Of those making expenditures, 42% reported spending on new equipment, 22% acquired vehicles, and 14% improved or expanded facilities. Eleven percent spent money on new fixtures and furniture and 5% acquired new buildings or land for expansion. Twenty-one percent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next six months, unchanged from August and a historically weak reading. 

A net negative 7% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, up two points from August. More firms reported declining sales than reported gains. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes fell 4 points from August to a net 8% (seasonally adjusted).  

The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains rose 3 points to a net negative 3%, seasonally adjusted. Not seasonally adjusted, 10% reported increases in stocks, and 12% reported reductions. A net 1% (seasonally adjusted) of owners plan inventory investment in the coming months, unchanged from August.  

Price increases remain above the monthly average of a net 13%, suggesting continued inflationary pressure. Unadjusted, 33% of owners reported higher average selling prices and 10% reported lower average prices. Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% plan to increase prices in the next three months, up five points from August.  

The frequency of reports of positive profit trends improved 3 points from August to a net negative 16% (seasonally adjusted). September’s reading was the highest since December 2021. Among owners reporting lower profits, 33% blamed weaker sales, 17% cited the rise in the cost of materials, 10% cited price change for their product(s) or service(s) and 9% cited labor costs. Among owners reporting higher profits, 58% credited sales volumes, 21% cited usual seasonal change, and 6% cited higher selling prices. 

A net 7% of owners reported that their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts, up 4 points from August and the highest reading of the year. Furthermore, a net 7% reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan and the average rate paid on short maturity loans was 8.8% in September, up 0.7 points from August. Twenty-six percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, up 3 points from August. 

Owners’ overall assessment of their business’ health was generally unchanged. When asked to rate the overall health of their business, 11% of owners reported excellent (down 3 points), and 57% reported good (up 3 points). Twenty-seven percent reported the health of their business was fair (unchanged) and 4% reported poor (unchanged). 

In September, 11% (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down 3 points from August. This is, comparatively, a relatively weak reading. 

Eighteen percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up 1 point from August and ranking as the top problem alongside labor quality. The percent of small business owners reporting government regulations and red tape as their single most important problem fell 3 points to 6%. 

The percent of small business owners reporting poor sales as their top business problem remained at 10%. Five percent reported competition from large businesses as their single most important problem, unchanged from August.  

In September, 8% reported the cost or availability of insurance as their single most important problem, down 1 point from August. Four percent reported that financing and interest rates was their top business problem in September, unchanged from August.  

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in September 2025.