WASHINGTON, D.C. (Nov. 25, 2025) – The NFIB Research Center released an industry-specific quarterly Small Business Economic Trends survey highlighting the construction, manufacturing, retail, and services industries. According to the report, the Optimism Index fell from the previous quarter for all reported industries except for construction.  

“Small business optimism fell in all reported industries except for construction, which was the most optimistic out of the four industries due to higher sales expectations and hiring plans,” said Holly Wade, Executive Director of NFIB’s Research Center. “Despite the diverging trends in optimism among industry sectors, 63% of small business owners rated the health of their business as excellent or good.” 

The survey was conducted in October and the overall Optimism Index in October was 98.2. 

Overall: 

• The percent of small business owners in all industries reporting supply chain disruptions impacted their business to some degree fell 4 points from July to 60%. Reports of supply chain disruptions were the highest in the retail (77%) and wholesale (76%) industries, and lowest in the finance (10%) and professional services (34%) industries. 

• Sixty-three percent of small business owners rated the overall health of their business today as excellent or good (a decline of 2 points from July). Reports were the highest in the finance (71%) and wholesale (71%) industries, and lowest in the retail (54%) and agriculture (56%) industries. 

Key findings by industry include: 

Construction

• In October, the Optimism Index for the construction industry increased by 2.2 points from the previous quarter to 105.5, largely driven by higher sales expectations and increased hiring plans. The construction industry was the most optimistic of all industries at 7.3 points above the overall index, and the only industry with an Index reading above its historical average. 

• The net percent of owners in the construction industry expecting higher real sales volume rose 21 points from July to a net 18% (seasonally adjusted). This was the highest of all industries and 12 points higher than for all firms. 

• Fifty percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners in the construction industry reported unfilled job openings, down 3 points from July but remaining well above the industry’s historical average of 31%. The construction industry had the highest level of job openings of all industries and was 18 points above the overall level for all firms. Nearly half (49%) of these openings are for skilled workers (up 4 points from July), and 14% are for unskilled workers (unchanged). 

• A seasonally adjusted net 35% of small businesses in the construction industry plan to hire in the next three months, up 15 points from July. The construction industry had the highest reading of all industries and was 20 points higher than for all firms. 
• Sixty percent of construction firms reported few or no qualified applicants, down 1 point from July and 11 points higher than reported for all firms. Nearly half (49%) of small businesses in the construction industry reported labor quality as their single most important problem, up 13 points from July. Construction was the highest of all industries and 22 points higher than for all firms. 

Manufacturing

• Manufacturing was the second most optimistic of the four industries, with an Optimism Index of 100.1. The Index for manufacturing was 1.9 points higher than for all firms. Although the Index declined by 5.8 points from the prior quarter, it is close to the industry’s historical average of 101.1. The Index fell primarily due to a deterioration in expectations for better business conditions and real sales expectations. This marked a reversal from the improvement in better business conditions and higher real sales expectations between April and July. 

• The net percent of small businesses in the manufacturing industry expecting real sales to increase fell 15 points from July to a net 5% (seasonally adjusted). Sales expectations for manufacturing businesses are below the industry’s historical average of a net 20% but are close to the reading for all firms (net 6%). 

• A net 26% (seasonally adjusted) of firms in the manufacturing industry expect better business conditions in the next six months, down 22 points from July and contributing the greatest to the Index’s decline. The manufacturing industry experienced the largest quarterly decline of all industries; however, the outlook for better business conditions remains the highest of all industries and is above the reading for all firms (net 20%). 

• In October, a seasonally adjusted net 24% of manufacturing businesses plan to hire in the next three months, down 2 points from July. As with the construction industry, firms in the manufacturing industry reported higher levels of hiring plans than for all firms (net 15%) and were the second highest of all reported industries. 

Retail

• The Optimism Index for the retail industry fell 0.4 points from July to 94.9. Small business owners in retail remain the least optimistic of all industries and have an Index 3.3 points below the level for all firms. The quarterly change in the retail industry’s Index was the smallest of all industries. A decline in expectations for better business conditions, hiring plans, and earnings primarily drove the Index’s decline. 

• In October, the retail industry had the lowest level of hiring plans of all industries. A seasonally adjusted net 5% of retail businesses plan to hire in the next three months, down 4 points from July. Hiring plans for the retail industry were 10 points lower than the reading for all firms.   

• Expectations for better business conditions fell by 13 points from the previous quarter to a net 15% (seasonally adjusted), contributing the most to the fall in the Index. This marked a reversal from the increase in expectations for better business conditions between April and July. The retail industry’s reading was lower than that for all firms (net 20%), and for all reported industries. 

• A net negative 11% (seasonally adjusted) of retailers reported current inventory levels as “too low” (up 3 points from July) indicating “too high” characterized most firms’ stocks. Despite the improvement from July, October’s reading remains below the retail industry’s historical average of a net negative 6%. The retail industry had the poorest reading of all reported industries and was 7 points worse than that for all firms. 

• In October, earnings trends in the retail industry fell 3 points from July to a seasonally adjusted net negative 29%. This means that 29% of retail businesses reported lower earnings during the last calendar quarter compared to the percent reporting better earnings. As with the April to July period, the retail industry had the lowest level of earnings trends of all industries. Earnings trends for retail businesses were 4 points worse than for all firms and remains below the industry’s historical average of a net negative 23%. 

Services

• In October, the Optimism Index for the services industry decreased 3.6 points from July to 95.6, falling below its historical average. All Index components declined from the previous quarter, except for hiring plans and expected credit conditions, which remained unchanged. The decline in optimism was primarily due to a decrease in real sales gains expectations, inventory satisfaction, and expectations for better business conditions. Small businesses in the services industry were less optimistic than the overall small business community, with an Index reading 2.6 points lower than that of all firms. 

• The net percent of small businesses in the services industry expecting real sales to increase fell 13 points from July to a net negative 3% (seasonally adjusted). Sales expectations remain below the historical average of a net 19% (seasonally adjusted). Sales expectations were the poorest in the services industry and were 9 points below the level for all firms. 

• A net negative 6% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners in the services industry reported their current inventory as “too low,” down 7 points from July. Services was the only industry in which inventory satisfaction decreased from the previous quarter.   

• Seventeen percent (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners in the services industry plan capital outlays in the next six months, down 3 points from July. This was 10 points below the historical average and 6 points below the level of all firms. 

The full report is available here.