HONOLULU, March 11, 2025—Small business owners are very uncertain about current economic conditions, according to today’s release of the latest Small Business Optimism Index by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), which showed the Index falling by 2.1 points in February to 100.7. Although this is the fourth consecutive month above the Index’s 51-year average of 98 it’s also 4.4 points below its most recent peak of 105.1 in December. The Uncertainty Index rose four points to 104 – the second highest recorded reading.

“From a public policy point of view, a large part of the economic uncertainty small business owners are feeling can be directly attributed to the lack of certainty concerning whether the 20% Small Business Deduction will expire at the end of the year,” said Michael Iosua, state director for NFIB in Hawaii. “Closer to home, it pleases me to report that legislation harmful to small businesses, including unemployment benefits for striking workers, increased paid family leave costs, and burdensome scheduling mandates appear dead for the year. This will go a long way to alleviating some of the uncertainty small business owners are having.”

NFIB’s monthly Small Business Optimism Index is the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street enterprises that employ half of all workers, generate more net new jobs than large corporations, and gave most of us the first start in our working life. The Optimism Index (aka Small Business Economic Trends report) is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. The typical NFIB member employs between one and nine people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.

From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

“Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons. Those small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months dropped and the percent viewing the current period as a good time to expand fell, but remains well above where it was in the fall. Inflation remains a major problem, ranked second behind the top problem, labor quality.”

Highlights from the Latest Optimism Index

• The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve fell ten points from January to a net 37% (seasonally adjusted).
• Twelve percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down five points from January. This is the largest monthly decrease since April 2020.
• Sixteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down two points from January and now just below labor quality as the top issue. The last time it was this low was in October 2021.
• Seasonally adjusted, a net 29% plan price hikes in the next three months, up three points from January and the highest reading in 11 months.

Keep up with the latest Hawaii small-business news at www.nfib.com or by following NFIB Hawaii on X @NFIB_HI.

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For more than 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since its founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.

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