FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: John Kabateck, California State Director, john@kabstrat.com
or Tony Malandra, Senior Media Manager, anthony.malandra@nfib.org

SACRAMENTO, Calif., Nov. 11, 2025—From John Kabateck, state director for NFIB in California, on the release today of the monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, showing a decline of 0.6 points in October to 98.2 but remaining above its 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index fell 12 points from September to 88, the lowest reading of this year.

“What I noticed most of all is that in spite of a slight slip last month, the Small Business Optimism Index still came in above its 52-year average. This is no small feat, considering it registered below that average for 34 consecutive months before November 2024, when it finally climbed above the average, and above the average it has registered ever since. Now, if only California policymakers could help it maintain that winning streak by such things as paying down or off its unemployment insurance debt with the federal government, the small business economy in the Golden State would get back, and hold on to, some of its long-lost luster.”

From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

“Optimism among small businesses declined slightly in October as owners report lower sales and reduced profits. Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street.”

Podcast

In conjunction with the October report, NFIB is also debuting a new podcast: “Small Business by the Numbers” – this is the NFIB Research Center’s new podcast where we discuss everything related to the small business economy. Guests and host Holly Wade, the Executive Director of the NFIB Research Center, will discuss the data, stories, and economic conditions affecting small businesses nationwide. Listen to the intro episode here.

Highlights from the Latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

• In October, 27% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, up 9 points from September and the highest level since the record high of 29% in November 2021. Labor quality ranked as the top problem and was 11 points higher than taxes, which ranked second.
• A net negative 13% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down 6 points from September.
• In October, both actual and planned price increases fell from the previous month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 3 points from September to a net 21% (seasonally adjusted). Looking forward to the next three months, a net 30% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices (down 1 point from September).

NFIB’s monthly Small Business Optimism Index is the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street enterprises that employ half of all workers, generate more net new jobs than large corporations, and gave most of us the first start in our working life. The Optimism Index (aka Small Business Economic Trends report) is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. The typical NFIB member employs between one and nine people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.

Keep up with the latest California small-business news at www.nfib.com. Follow us on X @NFIB_CA and on Facebook @NFIB.CA.

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For over 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since our founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.

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