FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Tim Taylor, California Policy Director, timtaylor264@gmail.com
or Tony Malandra, Senior Media Manager, anthony.malandra@nfib.org

SACRAMENTO, Calif., Oct. 14, 2025—From Tim Taylor, policy director for NFIB in California, on the release today of the monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism Index showing a decline of 2.0 points in September to 98.8. This was the first decline in three months, though it remains above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 7 points from August to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years.

“With the deadline having passed for Gov. Gavin Newsom to either sign or veto bills sent to him by the Legislature, California small business owners will now face additional pressures in addition to those highlighted in NFIB’s Small Business Index. One of those pressures is Assembly Bill 288, which should not withstand judicial scrutiny. Seeking to enforce workers’ collective bargaining rights for certain private sector employees when the federal National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) fails to act in a ‘timely manner’ is a usurpation of federal authority. Most importantly, it is a violation of a small business owner’s first amendment right to free speech. We would welcome a court striking AB 288 down.”

NFIB’s monthly Small Business Optimism Index is the gold standard measurement of America’s small business economy. Used by the Federal Reserve, Congressional leaders, administration officials, and state legislatures across the nation, it’s regarded as the bellwether on the health and welfare of the Main Street enterprises that employ half of all workers, generate more net new jobs than large corporations, and gave most of us the first start in our working life. The Optimism Index (aka Small Business Economic Trends report) is a national snapshot of NFIB-member, small-business owners not broken down by state. The typical NFIB member employs between one and nine people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year.

From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

“Optimism among small business owners decreased in September. While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations.”

Highlights from the Latest NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

• Supply chain and inflation issues stood out as a key problem in the report.
• Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input costs), up 3 points from August.
• In September, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, up 10 points from August.
• The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 3 points from August to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted). A net 31% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices over the next three months, up 5 points from August.
• One bright spot was actual earnings changes (the net percent of owners reporting higher vs. lower profits), which increased three points in September, up to its highest level since December 2021.

Keep up with the latest California small-business news at www.nfib.com. Follow us on X @NFIB_CA and on Facebook @NFIB.CA.

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For over 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since our founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.

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