NFIB’s March Small Business Economic Trends report saw a three-point decline in small business optimism and currently sits below the 52-year average. NFIB’s new Employment Index also fell nearly two points to 101.6, still above the historical average but showing some regression in the labor market.

The NFIB Research Center’s podcast, Small Business by the Numbers, released a new episode covering the change in the optimism and employment indexes and how this data mirrors the economic challenges small business owners are facing. Experts also explore how businesses and consumers are struggling with the spike in oil prices and its effect on the small business economy.

Key findings in March’s report include:

• March’s Optimism Index decreased three points, falling to 95.8, below the historical average of 98. Declines in earnings trends and expected business conditions were the top contributors to the decline. 

• The Uncertainty Index rose four points to 92, well above the historical average of 68. Owners reporting greater uncertainty about business conditions and whether to make capital expenditures were the top contributors to the increase. 

• Of the 10 Optimism Index components, eight declined and two remained unchanged. 

• Taxes are once again the top issue for small business owners, with 19% of businesses reporting taxes as their single most important problem. Labor quality and concerns about inflation were also top problems for small business owners. 

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in March 2026.