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Small Business Optimism Index Dips Below Historic Average

Small Business Optimism Index Dips Below Historic Average

June 9, 2026

Oregon voters showed great prescience in rejecting Measure 120 last month

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Anthony Smith, NFIB Oregon State Director, anthony.smith@nfib.org
or Tony Malandra, Senior Media Manager, anthony.malandra@nfib.org

SALEM, Ore., June 9, 2026—From Anthony Smith, state director for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) in Oregon, on today’s release of NFIB’s monthly Small Business Economic Trends (SBET) report, showing it falling 0.6 points in May to 95.3, remaining below its 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points from April to 91, remaining well above its historical average of 68.

“The small business economy is going through a turbulent patch at the moment, which is why Oregon voters did the right thing by rejecting Measure 120 last month. It’s critically important right now for policymakers to avoid unforced errors that increase costs for Main Street entrepreneurs.”

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

From NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

“AI investment spending has contributed to some excitement in the economy. Despite the enthusiasm around AI, the overall picture is divided. More small business owners are struggling with significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices, which are more challenging for small businesses to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors.”

Highlights from the May SBET Include:

  • Eighteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem, up 2 points from April and marking the highest reading since December 2024.
  • In May, reports of both actual and planned price increases rose significantly. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 6 points from April to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted), marking the highest reading since March 2023. A net 34% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, up 7 points from April and marking the highest reading since July 2022.
  • Sixteen percent (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners plan to make capital outlays in the next six months, down 1 point from April and the lowest level since March 2009.
  • Seventy percent of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, up 6 points from April.

 

Keep up with the latest Oregon small business news at www.nfib.com or on X at @NFIB_OR

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For over 80 years, NFIB has been advocating on behalf of America’s small and independent business owners, both in Washington, D.C., and in all 50 state capitals. NFIB is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, and member-driven association. Since its founding in 1943, NFIB has been exclusively dedicated to small and independent businesses and remains so today. For more information, please visit nfib.com.

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