NFIB Oregon 2024 Post-Election Report

November 15, 2024

News

NFIB Oregon 2024 Post-Election Report

Big change? No, thanks, said state’s voters

From NFIB Oregon State Director Anthony Smith

With projected winners declared in every legislative race in Oregon, we now have a better picture what things will look like politically here in Oregon – and across the country – for the next two years.

This election, at least here in Oregon, might best be summarized, “Big change? No, thanks.” Consider the following:

Predictably, Oregon voters preferred a continuation of the Biden-Harris administration. By a margin of 14 points, Oregon went for Vice President Kamala Harris. But all those votes couldn’t help VP Harris win the national popular vote, let alone the electoral college. Trump won, 312-226.

By a vote of 78% against, 22% for, Oregonians came together in record numbers to oppose Ballot Measure 118, the latest attempt at another massive tax increase on businesses. This was NFIB’s biggest win in Oregon this year – and the 56-point margin of victory for NFIB and our coalition allies put an exclamation point on this one that even the most unapologetic tax-and-spend special interests can’t ignore.

Democrats did about as well in Oregon as Republicans did nationally. Democrats won all three statewide executive races, including the race for Attorney General, where Democrat Dan Rayfield defeated a promising Republican contender Will Lathrop (who was endorsed by the NFIB Oregon PAC).

Although names and faces will change a bit, the Oregon Legislature is going to look very similar for the next two years. Senate Democrats picked up one seat and will have a 18-12 advantage. House Democrats are currently on the verge of flipping one seat that was originally called for the incumbent Republican. If successful, Democrats in both chambers of the Oregon Legislature will hold a three-fifths supermajority (36-24 in the House), meaning they will be able to pass revenue-raising measures (raising taxes, or establishing new taxes) on a party-line vote.

In addition to President Trump’s big win, the Associated Press has projected that Republicans will hold onto the U.S. House and will retake the U.S. Senate, giving Republicans a trifecta they haven’t enjoyed since the first two years of Trump’s first term, when they first passed the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act of 2017. Much of that legislation, including NFIB’s #1 priority, the 20% Small Business Deduction, is set to expire at the end of 2025, so national Republicans will need to be laser focused on delivering for America’s small businesses when they come back into power in January.

Unfortunately, they will have to do that without U.S. Congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer, a NFIB Guardian of Small Business Award recipient and NFIB member who narrowly lost her reelection race to state Rep. Janelle Bynum. Rep. Bynum is a small business owner and has been known to stand up to her own party on small business issues in the past. She achieved a 67% on her 2023-2024 NFIB Oregon Voting Record, the highest score of all Oregon Democrats that two-year period.

The NFIB OR PAC endorsed 44 candidates this year. We’re projected to win 31 of those races, which is a win rate of 70%. And while we’re disappointed that some of our endorsed candidates came up short, we look forward to welcoming new legislators to Salem next year and giving them the opportunity work with us on the important challenges that Oregon’s small businesses are experiencing right now.

Every new legislature, and each individual lawmaker, regardless of party affiliation, can choose to make small businesses a top priority. And with our country as divided as it is right now, there will be a temptation in states like Oregon to have an adversarial posture toward the new federal administration. But with everything at stake currently and for the next few years, we need our elected leaders at the state and federal level to be working together toward a more small-business-friendly economy. It’s NFIB’s job to remind them of that.

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