Expert political analyst Jim Ellis joined the session to give an in-depth analysis of the national landscape
Day two of the NFIB DC Fly-In concluded with a presentation from NFIB’s political team and expert political analyst Jim Ellis. Ellis gave an overview of the national landscape looking ahead to November and touched on some of the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races.
“By the end of today we’re going to have 25 states, or half the country, that have chosen their nominees,” Ellis said. “So, we are in the throws of the election cycle.”
He discussed what we’ve seen so far regarding approval ratings for President Biden and primary race voter turnout. He also discussed the top issues that could influence how people vote.
“In looking ahead, we can plan on seeing two prominent issues that will be in a similar mode during election time ” Ellis explained. “One thing that probably won’t change is inflation and gas prices, the way they are right now. The inflation rate right now is 8.6 and gas prices have never been higher. Economists have done studies particularly on inflation focusing on at what point does voter behavior start to change based on the inflation rate. And by that data, when do people start voting against the incumbent? And the answer to that is 7.0. For gas prices, that number is $4.01, and we are way above that.”
Ellis gave an in-depth look into the primary races that have already happened in 2022 and presented potential outcomes in the upcoming primaries. He analyzed the results for the 20 states that have completed their midterm primaries. Oregon, New Mexico, New Jersey and California are the only three states that have had a larger turnout among Democrats. The other 16 states have had a larger Republican turnout.
He also gave information on the congressional redistricting process and how the map will look now that it is nearly complete (for now). Foresight into potential outcomes for midterm and states’ polls helped NFIB members learn how their state is leaning and what the political climate may look like after the midterm elections.
While NFIB members are meeting with legislators to discuss major issues during the NFIB DC Fly-In this week, you can amplify the voice of small business remotely by sending a personalized message to your legislators.
For information on NFIB political activities, endorsements, voter guides visit NFIB’s Elections Center.