WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 27, 2026) – The NFIB Research Center released an industry-specific quarterly Small Business Economic Trends survey highlighting the construction, manufacturing, retail, and services industries. According to the report, the Optimism Index for all four reported industries fell from the prior quarter. The components that contributed most to the decline were expectations for better business conditions, real sales expectations, and reports that it is a good time to expand.

“Small business optimism declined in all reported industries,” said Holly Wade, Executive Director of NFIB’s Research Center. “Despite lower Optimism, over half of Main Street owners rated the health of their business as excellent or good.”

The survey was conducted in April, when the overall Optimism Index was 95.9.

Overall Highlights:

• The Optimism Index fell from January for all reported industries. Optimism was the highest in the construction industry and the lowest in retail. Retail was the only industry below the overall Optimism Index.
• In April, 64% of small business owners reported supply chain disruptions to some extent (up 2 points from January). Disruptions were most prevalent in the wholesale industry and least prevalent in the professional services and finance industries.
• Overall, 67% of small business owners rated the overall health of their business as excellent or good (down 1 point from January). All industries had over half of small business owners reporting their overall business health as excellent or good. Reports were highest in the professional services and lowest in transportation.

Key findings by industry include:

Construction

• In April, the Optimism Index for the construction industry fell 3.2 points from the previous quarter to 99.8. Deteriorations in real sales expectations, expectations for better business conditions, and those reporting that it is a good time to expand drove this decline. Despite the decline, owners in the construction industry were the most optimistic of all industries. The Index remains above the industry’s historical average of 98.7 and is 3.9 points above the overall Index.
• Forty-six percent (seasonally adjusted) of owners in the construction industry reported unfilled job openings, up 3 points from January and remaining well above the industry’s historical average of 31% (seasonally adjusted). Unfilled job openings in this industry were 12 points higher than the level for all firms.
• Unadjusted, 42% of these job openings are for skilled workers (up 5 points from January), and 17% are for unskilled workers (up 4 points). Fifty-six percent of construction firms reported few or no qualified applicants, up 2 points from April and 10 points above the level for all firms.
• Twenty-nine percent of small businesses in the construction industry reported labor quality as their single most important problem (down 1 point from January). Labor quality was the highest in the construction industry, and 11 points higher than for all firms.
• A seasonally adjusted net 19% of small businesses in the construction industry plan to hire int he next three months, down 2 points from January. Despite this decline, construction firms’ plans to increase employment remain strong. Hiring plans in the construction industry were 6 points higher than for all firms and 5 points higher than the industry’s historical average of a net 14% (seasonally adjusted).
• Earnings trends for the construction industry rose 4 points to a net negative 11% (seasonally adjusted), the best reading among all industries and the largest improvement from January. Additionally, earning trends in the construction industry were higher than the level for all firms (net negative 19%).

Manufacturing

• In April, the Optimism Index for manufacturing firms fell 5.8 points from January to 98.0, below its historical average of 101.1. This was the largest decline across all industries. Real sales expectations, expectations for better business conditions, and those reporting that it is a good time to expand their business were factors that contributed most to the decline.
• A net negative 8% (seasonally adjusted) of manufacturers reported current inventory levels as “too low” in April, down 5 points from January and falling below its historical average of a net negative 4%. The manufacturing industry had the lowest reading of all industries and was the only industry in which inventory satisfaction fell from the prior quarter.
• A net 2% (seasonally adjusted) of owners in the manufacturing industry plan to invest in inventory over the next three to six months, down 6 points from January and marking a reversal from the October-January period. Tariff policy shifts and higher oil prices are likely contributing to the decline.
• Compared to other reported industries, plans to increase inventories were the highest in manufacturing. Additionally, manufacturing firms’ inventory investment plans were 4 points higher than the level for all firms.
• In April, 21% (seasonally adjusted) of manufacturers plan to make a capital expenditure in the next three to six months, down 2 points from January. This is a low reading, with the historical average at 38%. Despite this poor reading, the manufacturing industry had the highest level of all industries. Capital expenditure plans in the manufacturing industry were 4 points higher than the reading for all firms.

Retail

• The Optimism Index for the retail industry fell 1.1 points from January to 94.1, the lowest among all industries. Retail was the only industry with an Optimism Index below the level for all firms. The quarterly change in the retail industry’s Index was the smallest across all industries.
• The percent of business owners reporting that it is a good time to expand their business was lowest in the retail industry. A seasonally adjusted 4% of retailers reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down 3 points from January. The retail industry’s reading was 3 points below the all-firms reading.
• A seasonally adjusted net 9% of retailers plan to hire in the next three months, up 1 point from January and close to the historical average of a net 7%. The retail industry had the lowest reading of all industries and was 4 points lower than for all firms.

Services

• In April, the Optimism Index for the services industry fell 2.6 points from January to 96.7, falling below its historical average of 99.0. The decline in optimism was primarily due to a deterioration in business conditions expectations, reports that it is a good time to expand, and real sales expectations. The Index for the services industry was the closest of all industries to the index for all firms.
• Expectations for better business conditions in the services industry fell 22 points from January to a net 2% (seasonally adjusted), contributing the most to the decline in the Index. This was the largest quarterly decline in expected business conditions across all industries.
• In April, the net percent of small businesses in the services industry expecting real sales to increase fell 6 points from January to a net 12% (seasonally adjusted). Real sales expectations in the services industry were 9 points higher than the level for all firms.

The full report is available here.

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