The December Small Business Economic Trends report showed that optimism remains relatively steady with a slight increase, while uncertainty saw a dramatic fall. The December data points to small businesses anticipating favorable economic conditions in 2026. 

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points to 99.5, remaining above the 52-year historical average of 98. An increase in those expecting better business conditions was the primary driver in the increase. The Small Business Uncertainty Index fell seven points to 84, its lowest reading since June 2024.  

Taxes have once again taken over as small businesses’ top issue, with 20% of small business owners ranking taxes as their single most important problem, a six-point increase from November. This is the highest reading since May 2021.  

Key findings include: 

• Taxes passed labor quality as the top problem for small business owners in December. 

• The greatest contributor to the rise in the Optimism Index was a net 24% of owners expecting better business conditions, a nine-point increase from November and the first increase since July.  

• Though 2025 was the highest year on record for the Uncertainty Index, December saw a seven-point drop in uncertainty, with the primary factor being a decrease in owners reporting uncertainty about whether or not it is a good time to expand their business. 

The NFIB Research Center’s new podcast, Small Business by the Numbers, covers many key highlights of the latest Small Business Economic Trends data, along with expert insight on the small business economy. Catch recent episodes covering Small Business Economic Trends reports, the history behind the data, and much more. 

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in December 2025.