The September Small Business Economic Trends report showed optimism declining and uncertainty increasing. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped for the first time in three months, falling two points in September to 98.8, just slightly above the 52-year average of 98. Pressures from inflation, lower expected sales, and concerns about the broader economy were the biggest contributors to the index’s decline. For September, the single most important problem was a tie at 18% between labor quality and taxes.  

Though optimism remains above average, the Small Business Uncertainty Index saw a dramatic increase of seven points, reaching its fourth highest reading in more than 51 years of the Small Business Economic Trends report.  

Key findings include: 

• Increasing supply chain and inflation issues are perhaps the top finding of this report. The net percentage of business owners raising average selling prices rose to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted). A net 31% plan to increase prices over the next three months, up five points from August.   

• In September, 64% of small business owners reported supply chain disruptions affected their business to some degree, up 10 points from August.  

• A net negative 7% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stock as too low, down seven points from August. This was the largest monthly decline in the survey’s history.  

• Actual earnings percentages (the net percentage of owners reporting higher vs. lower profits) rose three points in September to its highest level since December 2021. 

• Labor quality as small business owners’ top issue fell 3% in September to 18%, which is now tied with taxes as the single most important problem. 

• In September, 32% of respondents reported jobs they could not fill, with 58% of businesses total hiring or trying to hire. Of the 58% of businesses hiring, 88% reported few to no qualified applicants were found for the positions. 

• Overall, current business health in September remained generally unchanged from August. However, the net percentage of owners expecting better business conditions fell 11 points from August to a net 23% (seasonally adjusted).  

The NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since the fourth quarter of 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are randomly drawn from NFIB’s membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month. This survey was conducted in September 2025.