'Decision 2020' Looks at Trends Shaping This Year's Election

Date: March 01, 2020

About 75 people attended NFIB’s Decision 2020 forum to learn about the trends shaping this year’s state and federal elections.

Jessica Stanford, a demographic analyst with Carolina Demography at UNC’s Carolina Population Center, said the state’s population is growing as more people move in from out of state and that its workforce is changing.

“We have really shifted from this primarily agricultural and manufacturing state to a primarily knowledge-based sector in just a few decades,” Stanford said.

“As of 1990,” she said, “we still had more employment in agriculture than the nation and much higher rates of employment in manufacturing than the nation. Fast-forward through today, our employment in professional services now exceed that of both manufacturing and agriculture.”

North Carolina is becoming more urban and more diverse as people move into the state — and leave its small towns and rural communities — for jobs in the professional sector, primarily in the Triangle and in Charlotte, she said.

Most of the state’s increase in population over the past three decades can be attributed to people moving here from elsewhere. Of 3.7 million residents North Carolina has added since 1990, she said, 2.7 million of them were from people moving to the state rather than from babies being born here.

In practical terms, she said, the increase and shifts in population mean another round of redistricting and that state is likely to gain one seat in the U.S. Hosue of Representatives.

Democratic political consultant Morgan Jackson and Republican consultant Paul Shumaker talked about changes to the state’s political landscape.

Shumaker said changing demographics are forcing some candidates to change how they position themselves.

Shumaker and Jackson agreed that voter turnout in the state will be high in 2020.

Jackson said voter turnout was 36% in 2006, the last time there was a mid-term election with no gubernatorial, U.S. Senate or presidential race at the top of the ballot to drive voters to the polls — what he called a “blue moon election.” In 2018, the next year there was a blue moon election, turnout was 53%.

Jim Ellis, founder of Ellis Insight and senior political analyst for the Business-Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC), previewed this year’s presidential election.

Ellis said the increase in voter turnout isn’t unique to North Carolina.

Voter turnout nationwide was up 42% in 2018 compared with the 2014 midterm elections, Ellis said. “We’re in a different era of politics right now in terms of voter participation, and I think we’ll continue to see that,” he said.

Ellis also previewed the 2020 presidential race, telling NFIB members and guests that the outcome will depend on a handful of swing states — including North Carolina.

“It was a great meeting,” said Gregg Thompson, NFIB’s state director for North Carolina. “The speakers really helped our members get past the headlines and understand the social trends affecting North Carolina.”

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