Economic data: Mismatch between job openings, available workforce, and taxpayers leaving PA

Date: February 14, 2018

News from NFIB PA’s economic briefing with a Regional Economic Advisor from the Federal Reserve Bank

Business owners, lawmakers, and others were briefed in Harrisburg in February on the latest economic trends impacting Pennsylvania and the nation. The presenter was Ryo Tashiro, Regional Economic Advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia.

There were two very interesting trends noted in the presentation. The first relates to employment and hiring but goes beyond conventional cycles. Normally, when hiring increases, the unemployment rate drops, and when hiring decreases, the unemployment rate rises. But currently, there is an anomaly in which unemployment is remaining low, at the same time as job openings are plentiful. The data indicates a mismatch between the type of workers employers are seeking and the skills of those looking for work.

Tashiro, who says his views are his own and not those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia or the Federal Reserve System, says anecdotal data offers insight into why this mismatch between employer’s openings and worker’s skills may exist. In retail, for example, applicants may be qualified to become a become a cashier, but in the world of e-commerce, the retailers are looking instead for data programmers and website developers. Another example shows the reverse, where college graduates with advanced degrees are applying for jobs that don’t require that level of education.

In Pennsylvania, there is another disturbing trend which could create problems for the state’s economy if it continues for another ten years. Since 2007, a significant majority of counties in Pennsylvania saw more taxpayers move out than move in. Only nine of the state’s 67 counties saw a rise in their overall number of taxpayers. The data is important because taxpayers are consumers, and their purchasing power makes up about 70-percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A sustained outmigration could negatively impact Pennsylvania’s economy.

NFIB holds an annual economic briefing and works toward adoption of responsible fiscal policies in Pennsylvania, which create an environment in which its member businesses are more able to grow.

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