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UPDATE: NFIB Research Foundation Study Now Shows Health Insurance Tax to Cost 152,000 to 286,000 Private-Sector Jobs

WASHINGTON, D.C., May 6, 2014 — NFIB’s Research Foundation has issued the following update to the previous 2013 study on the impact of the Health Insurance Tax (HIT) as a result of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA):

The Research Foundation’s BSIM (Business Size Impact Module) predicts the rise in cost of employer-sponsored insurance stemming from the HIT will result in a reduction in private sector employment of 152,000 to 286,000 jobs by 2023, with 57 percent of the job losses coming from small businesses.

This will amount to a reduction of U.S. real output (sales) by between $20 billion to $33 billion during the same time frame. A similar study released in 2012 predicted a loss of 146,000 to 262,000 jobs and $19 billion to $35 billion in sales by 2022

Highlights from the Update: HIT

  • Nationally: 152,000 to 286,000 jobs lost and $20 billion to $33 billion in lost sales
  • California: 23,000 jobs lost by 2023; $4.0 billion in sales lost for California small business
  • Colorado: 4,100 jobs lost by 2023; $870 million in sales lost for Colorado small business
  • Florida: 9,700 jobs lost by 2023; $1.2 billion in sales lost for Florida small business
  • Illinois: 5,500 jobs lost by 2023; $1.0 billion in sales lost for Illinois small business
  • Massachusetts: 1,500 jobs lost by 2023; $450 million in sales lost for Massachusetts small business
  • New Jersey: 2,000 jobs lost by 2023; $380 million in sales lost for New Jersey small business
  • New York: 2,800 jobs lost by 2023; $630 million in sales lost for New York small business
  • Ohio: 5,900 jobs lost by 2023; $1 billion is sales lost for Ohio small business
  • Pennsylvania: 4,700 jobs lost by 2023; $790 million in sales lost for Pennsylvania small business
  • Texas: 14,500 jobs lost by 2023; $2.5 billion in sales lost for Texas small business
  • West Virginia: 2,200 jobs lost by 2023; $230 million in sales lost for West Virginia small business

Download the Update Read Press Release

UPDATE: NFIB Research Foundation Study Now Shows Health Insurance Tax to Cost 146,000 to 262,000 Private-Sector Jobs

March 19, 2013 — NFIB’s Research Foundation has issued the following update to the previous 2011 study on the impact of the Health Insurance Tax (HIT) as a result of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA):

The Research Foundation’s BSIM (Business Size Impact Module) predicts the rise in cost of employer-sponsored insurance stemming from the HIT will result in a reduction in private sector employment of 146,000 to 262,000 jobs by 2022, with 59 percent of the job losses coming from small businesses.

This will amount to a reduction of U.S. real output (sales) by between $19 billion to $35 billion during the same time frame. The previously released study in 2011 predicted a loss of 125,000 to 249,000 jobs and $18 to $30 billion in sales by 2021.Download the Health Insurance Tax Study Update as a PDF

Highlights from the Update:
 

  • Nationally: 146,000 to 262,000 jobs lost and $19 billion to $35 billion in lost sales
  • California: 15,600 jobs lost by 2022; $8.9 billion in sales lost for California small business
  • Colorado: 3,200 jobs lost by 2022; $1.4 billion in sales lost for Colorado small business
  • Florida: 6,100 jobs lost by 2022; $2.3 billion in sales lost for Florida small business
  • Illinois: 3,200 jobs lost by 2022; 1.8 billion in sales lost for Illinois small business
  • Massachusetts: 1,200 jobs lost by 2022; $700 million in sales lost for Massachusetts small business
  • New York: 3,100 jobs lost by 2022; $1.5 billion in sales lost for New York small business
  • Ohio: 3,400 jobs lost by 2022; $1.5 billion is sales lost for Ohio small business
  • Pennsylvania: 3,400 jobs lost by 2022; $1.4 billion in sales lost for Pennsylvania small business
  • Texas: 7,900 jobs lost by 2022; $4.1 billion in sales lost for Texas small business
  • West Virginia: 1,200 jobs lost by 2022; $290 million in sales lost for West Virginia small business
     
 

NFIB Research Foundation Study:
Health Insurance Tax to Cost 125,000 to 249,000 Private-Sector Jobs

November 9, 2011 — NFIB’s Research Foundation studied the private-sector job loss that will result from the Health Insurance Tax (HIT). Relying upon independent cost estimates, the Research Foundation’s BSIM (Business Size Impact Module) highlights how the rise in cost of employer-sponsored insurance stemming from the HIT will result in a reduction in private sector employment by 125,000 to 249,000 jobs in 2021, with 59% of those losses falling on small business.

Download the Health Insurance Tax Study as a PDF

Highlights from the Study:
 

  • Nationally: 125,000 to 249,000 jobs lost and $18 to $30 billion in lost sales
  • Colorado: 2,500 jobs lost by 2021 (1,300 in small business); $1 billion in sales lost for Colorado small business
  • Illinois: 2,500 jobs lost by 2021 (1,500 in small business); $1.4 billion in sales lost for Illinois smallbusiness
  • Ohio: 2,500 jobs lost by 2021 (1,600 in small business); $1.1 billion is sales lost for Ohio small business
  • Florida: 4,700 jobs lost by 2021 (2,800 in small business); $1.7 billion in sales lost for Florida small business
  • New York: 2,000 jobs lost by 2021 (1,600 in small business); $1.9 billion in sales lost for New York small business
  • Pennsylvania: 2,200 jobs lost by 2021 (1,600 small business); $1 billion in sales lost for Pennsylvania small business
  • California: 11,500 jobs lost by 2021 (6,800 small business); $7.4 billion in sales lost for California small business
  • Texas: 6,000 jobs lost by 2021 (3,300 small business); $3.1 billion in sales lost for Texas small business
  • Wisconsin: 2,300 jobs lost by 2021 (1,500 small business); $830 million in sales lost for Wisconsin small business

Download the Study Read Press Release

Jobs lost from health insurance taxThe 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act contains a tax on the health insurance policies that most small businesses purchase. Formally structured as a fee on health insurers, virtually all of the Health Insurance Tax (HIT) is expected to be passed on to consumers. Targeted at the fully-insured market, the HIT will raise the cost of insurance for small businesses and their employees.

This NFIB study aims to forecast the economic consequences this tax would have on US small businesses by firm-size category. The primary input in this study is the increase in employer costs resulting from the HIT which, according to independent estimates, will raise employer-sponsored health insurance costs by 2% – 3%. The study suggest that HIT could reduce private sector employment by 125,000 – 249,000 jobs in 2021, with 59% of those job losses falling on small business.