Small Business Economic Trends Archive

The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism gained 1.6 points in May with a reading of 92.2. Although not a strong sign of recovery, it is headed in the right direction.

The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 3.8 points, rising to 90.6, barely passing the "90 barrier." Pessimism persists but the Index is finally out of the 80s, at least for one month.

The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 1.2 points, falling to 86.8. The index has posted 18 consecutive monthly readings below 90. The March index continues this trend and is heading in the wrong direction, very inconsistent with the notion that the economy is recovering and that job growth has strength. Nine of the 10 index components fell or were unchanged from February’s. Not the picture of an economic expansion.

The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism lost 1.3 points in February, falling back to the December reading of 88.0 (1986=100), only seven points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached in March 2009 (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980:2). The persistence of Index readings below 90 is unprecedented in survey history.

The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism gained 1.3 points in January, rising to 89.3 (1986=100), 8.3 points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached in March 2009 (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980:2). Optimism has clearly stalled in spite of the improvements in the economy in the second half of 2009. Small business owners entered 2010 the same way they left 2009 – depressed.

The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.3 points in December, falling to 88.0 (1986=100). The Index is seven points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached in March 2009 (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980) but has been below 90 for 15 months. Optimism has clearly stalled in spite of the improvements in the economy.

The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.8 points in November, falling to 88.3 (1986=100), 7.3 points above March’s recession bottom. In the deep 1981-82 recession, the Index never fell below 90 and quickly surged to a record high early in 1983. In this recession, the Index has been below 90 for six quarters, indicative of the severity of this downturn.

The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 0.3 points, rising to 89.1 (1986=100), 8.1 points higher than the survey's second lowest reading reached in March (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980:2). In the 1980-82 recession period, the Index was below 90 in only one quarter. In this recession, the Index has been below 90 for six quarters, indicative of the severity of this downturn.

The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 0.2 points, rising to 88.8 (1986=100), 7.8 points higher than the survey's second lowest reading reached in March 2009.

The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 2.1 points in August, rising to 88.6 (1986=100), 7.6 points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached in March. Seven of the 10 Index components posted gains or were unchanged, three declined.

The National Federation of Independent Business monthly Small Business Economic Trends survey reports small business owner optimism fell 1.3 points to 86.5, producing the second monthly decline in a row (but still above the March reading of 81.0, the lowest reading of this recession). The main cause was a decline in expectations that business conditions would improve in six months.

The Index of Small Business Optimism lost one point, falling to 87.9 (1986=100) after posting a gain of 6.9 points since March. Four of the ten Index components posted gains, six lost ground. The decline, although small in magnitude, was primarily a result of declines in expected real sales and expected business conditions.

The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 2.1 points in May to 88.9 (1986=100). Nine of the ten Index components were unchanged or higher in May. The Index is still well below its historical average of 100, but headed in the right direction. Labor market components did not improve, indicating another bad month of numbers. Until small businesses start hiring, employment gains will languish.

The Index of Small Business Optimism rebounded 5.8 points in April to 86.8 (1986=100), led higher by 8 of the 10 Index components. All three of the "hard components" (job creation plans, inventory investment plans and capital spending plans) rose, although they are still at anemic levels. Assuming April’s numbers are not merely a brief interruption of a longer recession, this is good news for Gross Domestic Product growth and a rescue of the job market.

The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 1.6 points in March to 81.0 (1986=100), still the second lowest reading in the 35 year history of the NFIB survey (80.1 is the low, reached in 1980Q2). Two of the Index components improved and 8 declined. There we no components that delivered a strong signal of improvement, that will have to wait for the April survey.

For small business owners, January started off as badly as December ended. The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 1.1 points to 84.1 (1986=100), the second-lowest reading in the 35-year history of the National Federation of Independent Business survey.

December was not a good month for small business owners. The National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.6 points to 85.2, the second lowest reading in the 35-year history of the survey.

Small business owners broadly and sharply feel the impact of the recession. While the National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism rose a marginal 0.3 points to 87.8 (1986=100), it was the fourth lowest reading in the 35-year history of the survey. Inflationary pressures eased significantly, with the net percent of owners reporting higher average selling prices plunging to zero percent, a 15-point decline from October and one of the lowest readings ever.

October's churning economic activity clearly worried small business owners. The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism fell 5.4 points to 87.5 (1986=100), the third lowest reading in the 35-year history of the survey.

The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism rose 1.8 points to 92.9 (1986=100) in September, continuing one of the longest strings of recession-level readings in the history of the survey (started in 1973). But the index did rise for the second month in a row.

The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism rose 2.9 points to 91.1 in August, but continued one of the longest strings of recession-level readings in the history of the survey – dating back to 1973. Two-thirds of the gain was due to a new confidence among small business owners who expect business conditions to improve over the next six months.

The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism fell one point to 88.2 (1986=100) in July, establishing one of the longest strings of recession-level readings in the history of the survey. Half of the decline was due to weaker capital spending plans—the lowest reading since 1975. Lower earnings, fewer job openings and lower inventory satisfaction also posted substantial declines, but those were mostly offset by gains in expected real sales, business conditions and the percent of owners saying this is a good time to expand.

The National Federation of Independent Business monthly Index of Small Business Optimism was basically unchanged in June, falling 0.1 points to a recession-level reading of 89.2. "The top concern of small business owners today is inflation--the first time since January 1981," said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.

Small business owners are not optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism fell 2.2 points to 89.3 – a recession-level reading, and the lowest index reading since 1980," said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. "But the current low readings have not been accompanied by the declines in real spending and hiring as was the case in past recessions," he said.

Recession clouds appeared in the skies over Main Street, according to the most recent National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Economic Trends member survey. The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism fell 3.3 points in March to 89.6 – its lowest reading since the monthly surveys were started in 1986, and the lowest quarterly reading since the second quarter of 1980. The decline was driven by a sour outlook for business conditions and real sales growth, accounting for half the decline in the Index. Weaker plans to create new jobs accounted for 21 percent of the decline. "We are seeing recession readings," said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.