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Small Business Economic Trends Archive

  • Small Business Economic Trends - May 2013After last month's disappointing drop in small business confidence, April's Index of Small Business Optimism rose 2.6 points to 92.1, just above the recovery average of 90.7. In April’s report, 4 Index components rose, 2 fell and 4 were unchanged. Yet pessimism abounds within the sector, as still far more of those surveyed expect business conditions to be worse in 6 months than those who think they will be better.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - April 2013After three months of sustained growth, the March NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism ended its slow climb, declining 1.3 points and landing at 89.5. In the 44 months of economic expansion since the beginning of the recovery in July 2009, the Index has averaged 90.7, putting the March reading below the mean for this period. Of the ten Index components, two increased, two were unchanged and six declined. Among the greatest declines were labor market indicators, inventory investment plans and sales expectations.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - March 2013The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.9 points in February to 90.8. While a nice improvement over the last several reports, the Index remains on par with the 2008 average and below the trough of the 1991-92 and 2001-02 recessions. The direction of February’s change is positive, but not indicative of a surge in confidence among small-business owners.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - February 2013The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism increased 0.9 points to 88.9, still one of the lowest readings in the survey’s 40 year history. Economic growth in the fourth quarter turned negative. Yes, 2 million jobs were added last year, but the population grew by 3 million so, mathematically, far fewer of those who were dislocated by the recession have found a job. It is no surprise that consumer sentiment remains depressed as well. Expectations for business conditions in six months improved 5 points to negative 30 percent, the fourth lowest reading in survey history. Owner pessimism is certainly not surprising in light of higher taxes, rising health insurance costs and increasing regulations. There was very little to be positive about. Only 11 percent of consumers thought government was doing a good job in the Reuters/University of Michigan survey, a very poor showing.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - January 2013Small business owner confidence did not rebound in December, according to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. While owner optimism crept up 0.5 over November’s historically low report, the 88.0 point reading was still the second lowest since March 2010. December’s poor report resulted largely from a deterioration of labor market components, and the surprising percentage of owners who still expect business conditions to worsen in the next six months.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - December 2012
  • Small Business Economic Trends - November 2012
  • Small Business Economic Trends - October 2012The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index lost 0.1 points, falling to 92.8. The recession-level reading was pulled down by a deterioration in labor market indicators, with job creation plans plunging 6 points. Since monthly surveys were started in 1986, the Index has been below 93.0 fifty-six times, and 32 of those low readings have occurred since the recovery began in June 2009. News on the economy didn’t really change and neither did business owners' views of the future for the economy – it’s as uncertain as it has been all year. Views about the current period as a “good time to expand” did gain 3 points, and the number of owners expecting business conditions to be better in six months gained 4 points over the pessimists, landing at a net 2%. However, these are hardly strong readings, even if improved.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - September 2012Despite a disappointing jobs report, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index gained 1.7 points, rising to 92.9, in August. The Index showed some positive signs; employment indicators for the fourth quarter improved substantially, as did plans for capital outlays and expectations for business conditions. However, few employers continue to think the current period is a good time to expand. The percent of owners viewing the current period as a bad time to expand due to political uncertainty reached a new record high for this business cycle at 22%.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - August 2012Dipping for a second consecutive month, after ending several months of slow growth, the Small Business Optimism Index gave up 0.2 points, falling to 91.2. The decline, while less anticipated given the Supreme Court decision on the health-care law and a flurry of activity surrounding the fiscal cliff, still leaves owner optimism disturbingly low and at recession levels. The Index has oscillated between 86.5 (July 2009) and 94.5 (February 2012) since the recession officially ended in June 2009. Prior to 2008, the Index averaged 100, well above the current reading. During the economic recovery, now three-years-old, the Index has averaged 90, making this the worst recovery period from a recession in the NFIB survey history (which began in 1973).
  • Small Business Economic Trends - July 2012There was no good news in the June survey. The Small Business Optimism Index posted a decline of 3 points, falling to 91.4. This is a clear indication of slow growth. Only one of the ten Index components improved, expected credit conditions. Labor market indicators, spending plans for capital equipment and inventories took a drubbing, accounting for about 40% of the decline. Neither the SCOTUS decision or the highway spending bill effects are included in the June data.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - June 2012The Index of Small Business Optimism was basically unchanged in May at 94.4, down 0.1 points. A reading of 94.4 is historically low and consistent with the sub-par performance of GDP and employment growth. The individual indicators were mixed, with expected sales in a three-month decline. However, some employment components improved and profit trends remained relatively stable after its sharp gain in April.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - May 2012The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 2 points to 94.5 in April, a nice gain on an absolute basis. This month’s Index is the highest reading since December 2007, the peak of the last expansion. That's the good news. The bad news is that April's gain is the same as it was in February 2011 proving a year with no real gains. No surprise, since nothing much happened during that time that would make business owners more optimistic about the future.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - April 2012Six monthly gains in the Index of Small Business Optimism were reversed in March, as the index fell almost 2 points to 92.5. Nine of the ten Index components declined, only increasing satisfaction with inventory stocks added one point to the Index computation. It looks like a replay of 2011, a few months look good early on and then it all fades.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - March 2012The Small Business Optimism Index gained 0.4 points in February to 94.3 marking the sixth consecutive month of gains. While still historically low, the latest increase is a sign that the recovery is likely to continue, albeit at a glacial pace. The Index is lower than that of February 2011 but is the second highest reading since December 2007, the beginning of the recession.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - February 2012The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 0.1 points to 93.9 -- basically unchanged from December. Index readings from January and February 2011 were higher, so we are still below where we were a year ago even though the Index has risen five months in a row. Except for January and February of 2011, the current Index is the highest reading since December 2007 when the economy peaked. But, even with the progress made in the past few months, the Index still remains at recession-level readings.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - January 2012The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 1.8 points again, the fourth consecutive increase. For the second consecutive month, small business optimism rose 1.8 points. The small but notable gain settled the December reading at 93.8. A comparative look at early 2011 shows the Index rising in the early part of the year, only to decline in March and April.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - December 2011The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 1.8 points – it felt like spring! The numbers have been depressing for so long, any little progress looks good. The new reading is still well below the average (prior to 2008) by 8 huge points and below the comparable level in the recovery that started in 2001 by 14 points. But there was more supportive news in the details. Eight of the 10 Index components were unchanged or improved. The labor market components posted nice gains, expectations for real sales gains turned positive and the outlook for business conditions became a lot less negative. So the improvement, although small, was widespread and the forward looking components posted solid gains.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - November 2011The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 1.3 points, nudging the Optimism Index up to 90.2, below the year-to-date average of 91.1 and only slightly better than the average since January 2009 of 89.1. As was the case in September, the "gain" in the Index was primarily a result of less negative views about the prospects for real sales and business conditions. Hardly the basis for strong economic growth.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - October 2011The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 0.8 points ending a six-month decline, but about the only good thing to say about it is that the Index didn't go down. The net percent of owners expecting real sales to improve became less negative by 6 points, "rising" to a negative 6%. The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in six months "rose" 4 points to a negative 22%, not exactly a euphoric development.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - September 2011Confidence in the future of the economy crashed in August, taking the Small Business Optimism Index down 1.8 points to 88.1. This was the sixth monthly decline in a row. The expansion is officially two years and two months old, but the small business half of the economy is still in the “tank”. Expectations for real sales growth and business conditions were the major contributors to the decline for the second month in a row.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - August 2011For the fifth consecutive month, NFIB’s monthly Small-Business Optimism Index fell, dropping 0.9 points in July—a larger decline than in each of the previous three months—and bringing the Index down to a disappointing 89.9. This is below the average Index reading of 90.2 for the last two-year recovery period. Expectations for future real sales growth and improved business conditions were the major contributors to the decline in optimism. With the repercussions of the debt compromise yet unknown, next month’s report will provide a more complete picture of the reaction on Main Street.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - July 2011NFIB’s monthly Small-Business Optimism Index dropped one tenth of a point (0.1) in June, settling at 90.8, basically unchanged from the previous month. While some indicators rose slightly, including expected capital outlays, pessimism about future business conditions and expected real sales gains pulled the Index down, causing a small but disappointing drop for the fourth consecutive month. Although June marked the second year anniversary of the recovery, it appeared there was little happening to make small business owners more optimistic.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - June 2011The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 0.3 points in May to 90.9. This month marks the third monthly decline in a row. The proximate cause is the fact that 1 in 4 owners still report weak sales as their top business problem. Consumer spending is weak, especially for “services,” a sector dominated by small businesses.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - May 2011The month of April marked a second consecutive month of decline in small-business optimism. NFIB’s Index of Small Business Optimism dropped 0.7 points to 91.2 in April – a much smaller dip than the previous month, but still another sign of the nation’s anemic economic recovery.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - April 2011The Index of Small Business Optimism gave up 2.6 points in March, falling to 91.9. The decline in the percent of owners expecting higher real sales and better business conditions in six months account for 76% of the decline in the Index.
  • NFIB Small Business Economic Trends - March 2011The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 0.4 points in February, rising to 94.5, not the hoped-for surge that would signal a shift into "second gear" for economic growth. Seven Index components advanced or were unchanged and three fell, but all of the changes, positive or negative, were small. And "weak sales" still holds the most votes by owners as their top business problem.
  • NFIB Small Business Economic Trends - February 2011The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism rose 1.5 points in January, a modest increase, opening the new year with a reading of 94.1. Even with the slight overall uptick in optimism, the increase was blunted by the fact that small business owners remain highly skeptical about the future and continue to hesitate on new spending and hiring.
  • NFIB Small Business Economic Trends - January 2011The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.6 points in December dropping to 92.6, not a huge change but not the hoped-for rebound that would signify more growth in the small business sector.
  • NFIB Small Business Economic Trends - December 2010The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 1.5 points in November after a 2.7 point gain in October, rising to 93.2. Still, the Index remains in recession territory. Consumer optimism measures grudgingly gave up modest improvements as did the Index, but nowhere is there evidence of a “surge” as experienced in 1983 after the deep recessions of 1980-82.
  • NFIB Small Business Economic Trends - November 2010The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism gained 2.7 points in October rising to 91.7. Although the increase is not a huge move, it is an improvement, perhaps anticipating an acceleration in economic activity. However, the Index still remains in recession territory.
  • NFIB Small Business Economic Trends - October 2010The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 0.2 points in September, rising to 89.0. The increase is certainly not a significant move, but at least it did not fall. Still, the Index remains in recession territory.
  • NFIB Small Businsess Economic Trends - September 2010The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 0.7 points in August, rising to 88.8. Most of the improvement was accounted for by gains in expected real sales and expectations for business conditions six months out, the two components that lowered the Index in July.
  • NFIB Small Businsess Economic Trends - August 2010The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.9 points in July following a sharp decline in June. The persistence of Index readings below 90 is unprecedented in survey history. The performance of the economy is mediocre at best, given the extent of the decline over the past two years. Pent up demand should be immense but it is not triggering a rapid pickup in economic activity. Ninety (90) percent of the decline this month resulted from deterioration in the outlook for business conditions in the next six months. Owners have no confidence that economic policies will "fix" the economy.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - July 2010The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 3.2 points in June after posting modest gains for several months. The persistence of Index readings below 90 is unprecedented in survey history. The performance of the economy is mediocre at best, given the extent of the decline over the past two years.
  • Small Business Economic Trends - June 2010

    The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism gained 1.6 points in May with a reading of 92.2. Although not a strong sign of recovery, it is headed in the right direction.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - May 2010

    The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 3.8 points, rising to 90.6, barely passing the "90 barrier." Pessimism persists but the Index is finally out of the 80s, at least for one month.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - April 2010

    The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 1.2 points, falling to 86.8. The index has posted 18 consecutive monthly readings below 90. The March index continues this trend and is heading in the wrong direction, very inconsistent with the notion that the economy is recovering and that job growth has strength. Nine of the 10 index components fell or were unchanged from February’s. Not the picture of an economic expansion.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - March 2010

    The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism lost 1.3 points in February, falling back to the December reading of 88.0 (1986=100), only seven points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached in March 2009 (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980:2). The persistence of Index readings below 90 is unprecedented in survey history.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - February 2010

    The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism gained 1.3 points in January, rising to 89.3 (1986=100), 8.3 points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached in March 2009 (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980:2). Optimism has clearly stalled in spite of the improvements in the economy in the second half of 2009. Small business owners entered 2010 the same way they left 2009 – depressed.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - January 2010

    The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.3 points in December, falling to 88.0 (1986=100). The Index is seven points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached in March 2009 (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980) but has been below 90 for 15 months. Optimism has clearly stalled in spite of the improvements in the economy.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - December 2009

    The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.8 points in November, falling to 88.3 (1986=100), 7.3 points above March’s recession bottom. In the deep 1981-82 recession, the Index never fell below 90 and quickly surged to a record high early in 1983. In this recession, the Index has been below 90 for six quarters, indicative of the severity of this downturn.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - November 2009

    The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 0.3 points, rising to 89.1 (1986=100), 8.1 points higher than the survey's second lowest reading reached in March (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980:2). In the 1980-82 recession period, the Index was below 90 in only one quarter. In this recession, the Index has been below 90 for six quarters, indicative of the severity of this downturn.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - October 2009

    The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 0.2 points, rising to 88.8 (1986=100), 7.8 points higher than the survey's second lowest reading reached in March 2009.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - September 2009

    The Index of Small Business Optimism gained 2.1 points in August, rising to 88.6 (1986=100), 7.6 points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached in March. Seven of the 10 Index components posted gains or were unchanged, three declined.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - August 2009

    The National Federation of Independent Business monthly Small Business Economic Trends survey reports small business owner optimism fell 1.3 points to 86.5, producing the second monthly decline in a row (but still above the March reading of 81.0, the lowest reading of this recession). The main cause was a decline in expectations that business conditions would improve in six months.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - July 2009

    The Index of Small Business Optimism lost one point, falling to 87.9 (1986=100) after posting a gain of 6.9 points since March. Four of the ten Index components posted gains, six lost ground. The decline, although small in magnitude, was primarily a result of declines in expected real sales and expected business conditions.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - June 2009

    The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 2.1 points in May to 88.9 (1986=100). Nine of the ten Index components were unchanged or higher in May. The Index is still well below its historical average of 100, but headed in the right direction. Labor market components did not improve, indicating another bad month of numbers. Until small businesses start hiring, employment gains will languish.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - May 2009

    The Index of Small Business Optimism rebounded 5.8 points in April to 86.8 (1986=100), led higher by 8 of the 10 Index components. All three of the "hard components" (job creation plans, inventory investment plans and capital spending plans) rose, although they are still at anemic levels. Assuming April’s numbers are not merely a brief interruption of a longer recession, this is good news for Gross Domestic Product growth and a rescue of the job market.

  • Small Business Economic Trends - April 2009

    The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 1.6 points in March to 81.0 (1986=100), still the second lowest reading in the 35 year history of the NFIB survey (80.1 is the low, reached in 1980Q2). Two of the Index components improved and 8 declined. There we no components that delivered a strong signal of improvement, that will have to wait for the April survey.