Small Business Toolbox

A library of business management info


Leading Indicators from MyBusiness Magazine
  • Leading Indicators: Holding On
    10/01/2008
    Despite a slew of factors working against it, the economy refuses to match the pessimism.
  • Leading Indicators: Small Business Walks an Economic Tightrope
    08/01/2008
    The economy is in the doldrums, and so is small business owner optimism. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has been 10 points below its average level all year and hasn’t shown any sign of rebounding. Last September, the Index was seven points higher, but it began a steady decline once the Fed started cutting interest rates and warning of recession.
  • Wall Street Woes Affect Main Street Optimism
    06/03/2008
    Owner optimism measured by the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 1991 recession levels at the start of 2008. The decline in optimism started in September with the Fed's first warning and rate cut.
  • Leading Indicators: Ready for the Squeeze
    04/02/2008
    The Index of Small Business Optimism fell in January to the lowest reading since January 1991—when the country was in a recession. If confirmed by surveys later in the first quarter, the index is signaling the start of a recessionary period starting in the second quarter.
  • Fed Rate Cuts Deflate Small-Business Optimism
    02/11/2008
    Credit problems seem to be the top concern of the Federal Reserve and the talking heads these days. Although the GDP grew at a phenomenal 4.9 percent in the third quarter and job growth has been strong (more than 100,000 new jobs monthly), the Fed embarked on a rate-cutting path that most observers think will extend into 2008. If consumers didn't spend enough during the 2007 holiday season, the Fed will likely cut rates to make it better.
  • The Credit Circus
    11/30/2007
    The big news these days seems to be a concern that credit markets have "seized up," that they will not function properly and that commercial-paper markets are frozen. Well, that may be the view from the 50th floor of a building on Wall Street, but it is not true on Main Street.
  • What Uninspiring Growth Looks Like
    09/26/2007
    According to the Bureau of economic analysis, the output of the economy (GDP) grew only 0.7 percent in the first quarter but 3.4 percent in the second. It is hard to believe that the growth rate of a $13 trillion economy could increase five-fold in just 90 days, so let's just average the two numbers and agree that, as small-business owners told us in January, growth was slow and below potential in the first half of the year, not much better than 2 percent for the year.
  • A Trickle of Growth
    07/25/2007
    The U.S. economy continues to underperform its long-run potential. The surprise to many is that the unemployment rate hasn't risen. Most likely this is because the economy is close to full employment. This means we employ a near-record percentage of the adult population.
  • Leading Indicators
    05/30/2007
    Charting a course with mixed signals
  • Leading Indicators: U.S. Economy Remains in Expansion Mode
    04/02/2007
    NFIB's small-business economic trends reports found the U.S. economy strong at the end of last year. And while early 2007 readings were slightly weaker, they still predicted growth. Even better news is that small-business owners remain quite optimistic about the economy, especially for this stage in the expansion period we're currently experiencing. Twenty-two percent of small-business owners surveyed expect the economy to be "better" six months from now, while only 16 percent expect the economy to weaken by mid year.
  • Leading Indicators: Looking Ahead for Small Business in 2007
    02/02/2007
    For small businesses, 2006 was a good year. Owners sensed the pickup in economic activity before the year started, as the Index of Small Business Optimism jumped to 103 in October 2005 (1986=100), a sign that the first quarter of 2006 was going to be very strong. Indeed, growth in the first quarter accelerated to almost 6 percent at an annual rate, nearly doubling the trend growth rate. Mid-year, optimism faded a bit, signaling a slower economy. And, sure enough, the Optimism Index averaged 98 in the second half.
  • Leading Indicators: What to Expect in 2007
    11/21/2006
    As 2006 winds down, the economy is slowing from its surprising first-half strength. The slump in housing is certainly contributing, but less than many observers expected. Indeed, NFIB-member construction firms are still more optimistic than the average for all firms, although they are certainly less exuberant than they were earlier this year. Strong business spending is providing other options for using a hammer and saw. Here are some areas to watch in 2007.
  • Leading Indicators
    09/20/2006
    Facing Inflation Fears
  • Leading Indicators: Avoiding Inflation
    07/25/2006
    The first half of the year is behind us. Although the economy is showing some signs of fatigue (stock market stumbles, ups and downs in initial jobless claims and rising inflation as capacity is strained), it is still growing above the long-run trend rate of growth. This could mean problems with inflation if productivity stops growing fast enough to offset rising labor costs.
  • Leading Indicators: Labor and Energy Costs on the Rise
    05/25/2006
    With half the year almost behind us, 2006 is looking good. Small businesses are doing their part to create new jobs. Strong growth in the output of goods and services has pushed up worker compensation. More than a quarter of small-business owners have raised wages and benefits. This is good news for workers, but it worries the Federal Reserve since labor costs account for 70 percent of business costs.
  • The Small-Business Take on Recent Economic News
    03/31/2006
    As a small-business owner, you hear lots of news reports on the nation's economy, predictions about what will happen in 2006 and what the latest reports mean. All you really care about is how it affects your business. Here is a look at what the news means for your business, along with some of our own predictions.
  • A Look Ahead: Five economic areas that will affect small business the most in 2006
    01/23/2006
    2005 is in the bag, and although it will be months before the government gives us reasonably reliable information on the fourth quarter, the third quarter’s stunning 4.3 percent growth rate indicates the fourth quarter had to have been pretty good. During the holiday shopping season, the malls were packed, and early indicators show Internet spending doubled from 2004.
  • Small Business and the Price of Gas
    11/21/2005
    The price of gasoline hit record levels at the pump, averaging more than $3 during the hurricane attacks on the Gulf Coast. Katrina hit with gas inventories at the lowest level in history. Since Americans consume 400,000,000 gallons of gas daily, higher prices for gasoline mean even more dollars will have been spent at the pump in 2005.
  • Small-Business Labor Markets Are Strong
    09/27/2005
    The U.S. economy continues to roll along, just as small-business owners predicted. Analysts are now marking up their forecasts to match the predictions of small businesses. Hiring plans strengthened and inventories were reported relatively low, while plans to add to inventories as we go into the fourth quarter strengthened.
  • Small-Business Owners Expect More Economic Growth
    07/26/2005
    The most recent revision of estimated growth for the economy in the first quarter of 2005 pegs real growth at 3.8 percent, up from the 3.1 percent original guess. Clearly the economy is moving forward at a nice pace.
  • Ignore the Doomsayers
    06/01/2005
    The latest buzz word on Wall Street is “soft spot.” It’s not clear what this means, but apparently, it’s a concern that growth in the economy is not keeping pace with the impressive rates in 2004. Seems like Wall Street is never satisfied. You can see that volatility is the face of life of expansions by looking at the quarterly growth rates in GDP during the expansion periods over the past two decades. Hanging on to every daily statistic is the task of traders—not investors. Most forecasters still have the economy growing well above trend this year.
  • 2005 Shaping Up to Be a Good Year
    04/01/2005
    We now know that 2004 was one of the best economies in recent history, in spite of all the statements to the contrary during the election season. More than 2 million new jobs were created (by small firms!), inflation was low (although higher than in 2003 when we couldn’t raise prices at all), interest rates stayed low (in spite of five hikes by the Fed), and real GDP grew a hot 4.4 percent. If 2005 could be like just it, we’d be very happy campers.
  • Forecast for 2005: Record Highs
    02/01/2005
    Small-business owner optimism reached a 30-year high in November, the 20th straight month of Index readings above 100. The Small- Business Optimism Index rose almost 4 points from October’s solid reading to reach 107.7, equaling the quarterly record Index value reached in 1983.
  • Strong Signs Continue
    10/01/2004
    The growth streak continues.
  • Small Business Continues to Lead Recovery
    08/01/2004
    Good news, we are still on track for the best economy in 20 years.
  • Good News (Almost) Everywhere You Look
    05/28/2004
    First, the good news: Small-business owner optimism remained at historically strong levels.
  • Get Ready to Grow
    04/01/2004
    In short, it's been 20 years since small-business owners have been this optimistic.
  • Bright Signs for 2004
    01/29/2004
    Small-business owners have become very optimistic. NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index reached its highest levels since 1983 in the third and fourth quarters of 2003.
  • Continued Growth
    11/26/2003
    In August, NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index hit 104.6 -- the highest reading since the early 1980s -- a clear signal that economic growth could easily mimic the growth experienced during that boom.
  • Rebound Continues
    09/29/2003
    Small business owners are finally showing some signs of life.
  • Optimism Rises
    08/01/2003
    June produced a sharp rebound in owner optimism, with the Small Business Optimism Index rising to 101.7 from 100.1 in May and 100.0 in April.
  • Patience Makes Perfect
    06/04/2003
    Economic outlook for small-business owners takes a turn for the better.
  • Growth Slow But Sure
    04/10/2003
    Small business owners are more suspect of the near-term strength of the economy.
  • New Year Brings New Growth
    03/05/2003
    We made it through 2002 and all of the doom and gloomers look pretty silly.
  • Slow (But Steady) Growth
    01/27/2003
    All in all, not a bad economy.
  • Steady Economic Growth
    11/25/2002
    Well, it's an interesting economy to say the least.
  • Growth Slow and Steady
    09/17/2002
    The economy grew in the first quarter, as small business owners had predicted.
  • Recovery Continues
    07/11/2002
    Economic growth surged in the first quarter--as predicted by NFIB members in the fourth quarter 2001 surveys.
  • Consider the Recession Over
    05/30/2002
    The growth in Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter of 2001 came in at 1.4 percent (annual rate), much to the astonishment of most economists. This was no surprise to small business owners, however.
  • Recession Fears Fuel Pessimism
    03/29/2002
    The Small Business Optimism Index lost ground in recent months (as has consumer optimism), but a lot of the erosion has been in ôexpectations,ö not in actual spending or spending plans.
  • A Soft Landing
    03/29/2002
    It's clear that 2000 will go into the books as another good year in what is now the longest economic expansion in history.
  • Back to Normal?
    03/28/2002
    How can you be sure that "normalcy" is back? Government spending is surging and the word "deficit" is now the operative budgetary descriptor in Washington.
  • A Flat Road Ahead
    03/28/2002
    The weakness in the economy has come primarily from a decline in investment spending (primarily plant and equipment, as housing has held up pretty well) which from 1995 to 2000 was the driving force behind economic growth.
  • Optimism Takes a Dip
    03/22/2002
    In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September, the stock market had its worst week in 70 years. However, in contrast to the 1987 event, this event has had a material impact on the real economy.
  • Exiting the Economy Superhighway
    03/22/2002
    The Economy of 2000
  • Small Firms Continue to Be Optimistic
    03/22/2002
    The economy is not in a recession, not likely to be in a recession this year and might even take a weak swing at resuming 3 percent real growth in the near future, according to small business owners.