08/06/2008
As Election Day approaches and the race for president continues to dominate the news, NFIB has also been closely watching several congressional races that have the potential to profoundly impact our agenda in the next Congress. As small business owners deal with energy, healthcare and tax crises, it's critical that the nation elect lawmakers who will contribute to a Congress that will support a pro-small business agenda.
NFIB is currently watching the development of the following key races:
Senate
Maine: Primary held June 10, 2008
Two-term incumbent U.S. Sen. Susan Collins (R) will face current U.S. Rep. Tom Allen (D) in November. Despite an increasing Democratic trend in Maine politics, Collins has remained popular among the electorate by retaining a centrist Republican record and persona. Challenger Allen, a staunch opponent of the war in Iraq and the Bush administration with a lifetime NFIB voting record of 10 percent, has tried to paint Collins as more conservative than her record suggests.
As of June 30, Collins had raised more than $6 million in what will likely be one of the more expensive campaigns this season. Allen had raised just over $4.6 million.
According to a mid-May poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, Collins led Allen 52 to 42 percent in a head-to-head match-up. Collins also had higher favorability ratings than Allen, at 70 and 58 percent, respectively.
Minnesota: Primary is Sept. 9, 2008
In his first reelection campaign, U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman (R) will most likely face author and activist Al Franken (D) in November. Franken's strong support from the Democratic-Farmer-Labor establishment, fund-raising abilities and a large grassroots operation has helped him to virtually clear the field for the Democratic nomination.
As of March 31, Coleman had raised over $8.7 million in what could be the most expensive Senate campaign this cycle. Franken had raised over $9.3 million. Strong fundraising pushes will likely continue for both campaigns through the fall.
According to a late-May poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports, Coleman leads Franken 47 to 45 percent in a head-to-head match-up. Coleman also had marginally higher favorability ratings than Franken; the ratings were 49 and 47 percent, respectively.
House
Nevada-03: Primary is Aug. 12, 2008
Third-term incumbent and previous NFIB Guardian Award winner Rep. Jon Porter (R) will likely face former state Senate Minority Leader and college professor Dina Titus (D) in November. Democrats are targeting the seat after Rep. Porter narrowly won the race in 2006 by only 4,000 votes. The race is further complicated by the fact that the typically swing district has a unique independent streak, with roughly 5 percent of voters regularly choosing non-major party candidates in Congressional elections. In addition, the excitement of the 2008 presidential race has increased voter registration and propensity in the district, making it much more competitive than in a non-presidential election year.
The Democrats took a hit in April of this year when their top candidate and Clark County deputy district attorney Robert Daskas dropped out of the race, leaving a crowded field of lackluster candidates. Titus announced her candidacy in early May and became the Democratic frontrunner overnight. Titus has received strong support from both the state and national Democratic parties. As of June 30, Porter had just over $1.2 million cash on hand, and Titus reported about $550,000. The district, which surrounds Las Vegas, is fairly expensive to campaign in.
North Carolina-08: Primary was May 6, 2008
Fifth-term incumbent and current NFIB member Rep. Robin Hayes (R) will face social studies teacher Larry Kissell in a rematch of the 2006 mid-term election. Rep. Hayes defeated Kissell by only 329 votes, making it one of the closest races in the election cycle.
The national political climate could have a negative impact on Rep. Hayes, who has previously received the NFIB Guardian Award, and Democrats are hoping to again make Hayes' voting record on trade issues like CAFTA a major campaign issue. Kissell, however, has a large fundraising disadvantage. As of June 30, Rep. Hayes maintains about $1.17 million cash on hand, while Kissell reports only appx. $230,000.
Ohio-15: Primary was March 4, 2008; Open Seat
The general election match-up will be between NFIB member and state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) and Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D). Kilroy was the 2006 Democratic nominee; she lost to then-incumbent Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) by just over 1,000 votes. The last election was forced into an official recount; Kilroy did not concede until the recount was finalized in mid-December of 2006. Shortly after, she announced her intent to run against Rep. Pryce in 2008. Rep. Pryce announced in August of 2007 that she would not run for reelection, leaving the seat open.
The 15th District race is shaping up to be highly competitive, and has been classified as a tossup race by several leading political analysts. This race will be greatly affected by the narrow win by Rep. Pryce in the 2006 mid-term election, many political insiders consider this one of the “must watch” races of the year. Last cycle, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee heavily supported Kilroy, and labor-backed Americans United launched an extensive anti-Pryce television campaign. It is likely that similar national focus will be placed on the Columbus-based swing district this year, especially considering the fact that Ohio will once again be a target state in the presidential race.
Washington-08: Primary is Aug. 19, 2008
Two-term incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert (R), is in for a tough reelection in this suburban Seattle district. The leading contender for the Democratic nomination is Darcy Burner, a community activist and the 2006 Democratic nominee for the seat. The November election will likely have Reichert and Burner facing off in a rematch. Reichert, an NFIB Guardian Award recipient, narrowly defeated Burner 51 to 49 percent in 2006.
Even though the national political climate will be challenging for Reichert, the congressman is extremely well-known and respected. This swing district is very expensive to campaign in. As of June 30, Burner has a cash-on-hand advantage with about $1.2 million, with Reichert reporting around $900,000. The race will remain one of the most competitive races right up to Election Day.
Stay up-to-date
For the latest election news and candidate information on these and other races, be sure to check out NFIB.com/politics. As a benefit of membership, NFIB members have exclusive access to our list of endorsed candidates and the 2008 Election Priorities section. Not a member? Join now for more in-depth election coverage.
