NFIB

Small Business Indicators of Macroeconomic Activity -- October 2003
12/08/2003

Given that small firms compose a large share of the American economy, they are impacted by the same economic forces and conditions as their larger counter-parts, and their flatter structure allows information to reach the decision-maker more quickly (arguably), the experiences and expectations of their owners should provide timely insight into the future course of national economic activity. The objective of this monograph is to empirically assess how well NFIB's small business economic data forecast changes in highly visible measure of macroeconomic activity such as employment, inflation, investment and real GDP growth.