NFIB Small Business Jobs Report
The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since 1974 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are drawn from NFIB’s membership. The survey was conducted in December and reflects the responses of 568 sampled NFIB members.
Jan. 2015 Small Business Jobs Statement from NFIB’s Chief Economist:
Hiring Spike Good, Signals Better Direction
Small business hiring very strong in December
NFIB’s chief economist William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following comments on NFIB’s January 2015 Jobs Report:
“The December results clarify the economic picture for 2015 and what we’re seeing looks very promising. We’ve been waiting a long time for this kind of activity, but it looks like small business owners are finally shaking off the effects of the recession.
“The percent of owners reporting job creation rose 7 percentage points from November to a net 9 percent of owners. The percent of owners creating new jobs finally soared while the percent cutting jobs remained historically low. Overall, the average increase in workers per firm was 0.2, up from 0.05 in November and historically large. Because owners report on past hiring, this confirms the better job numbers November delivered. Eighteen percent report increasing employment an average of 2.9 workers while 9 percent reduced their workforce by an average of 3.0 workers (seasonally adjusted). Fifty-four percent reported hiring or trying to hire, but 43 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Fourteen percent reported using temporary workers, down 1 point.
“Twenty-five percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 1 point from November and a very solid reading. This anticipates a further reduction in the unemployment rate even if job creation is not especially strong.
“Job creation plans improved 4 points to a seasonally adjusted net 15 percent, one of the stronger readings in NFIB survey history. This is a number consistent with the stronger GDP growth reported in the second half of the year and anticipates a ramp up in private sector hiring.
“GDP growth for Q3 was surprisingly revised up to 5 percent, a stunningly strong reading. Such a major shift in economic activity in just 90 days should have produced a sense of “economic whiplash” somewhere in the economy. The November jobs number might have qualified if it were not “contradicted” by a 4,000 job increase in the Household survey. But shifting gears in such a large economy can produce confusing results. That said, it would appear that the job market is set for improvement in 2015, at least in the small business sector which has been a laggard in the recovery. Average monthly gains (post revision) should rise and the unemployment rate should give up more ground early in the year.”
Results of the full survey will be released on Tuesday, January 13, 2015.