Smith: Despite projected state general fund and lottery revenues at or near record levels for the next two-year budget cycle, the cost of government is increasing at an even faster pace.
Dear NFIB/Oregon members,
Since the General Election on Tuesday, November 8, small businesses across the country are feeling a renewed sense of optimism – and the feeling is measurable.
Every month, NFIB’s Research Foundation releases its Index of Small Business Optimism, one of the oldest and most widely respected economic research reports in the country.
Following the results of the 2016 general election, the November index improved 3.5 points to 98.4, which is just above the 42-year average and only the third time since 2007 that it has broken into “above average” territory. The December index, released on January 10th, was even more impressive, jumping another 7.4 points to reach 105.8. This is the highest the index has reached since 2004 and the sharpest single-month increase since 1980.
News outlets across the country have taken notice. Even Donald Trump tweeted about it.
Clearly, American small-business owners are feeling better about the direction of the economy at the federal level, but what about Oregon’s small businesses? Can we legitimately expect Oregonians to share in the national optimism? With so many battles ahead of us, only time will tell.
Here’s what we know today – despite projected state general fund and lottery revenues at or near record levels for the next two-year budget cycle, the cost of government is increasing at an even faster pace.
Newly passed ballot measures, rising PERS costs, and Oregon’s increasing share of the cost Medicaid expansion are significant drivers of the so-called “$1.7 billion shortfall” in the next biennium. The Governor has called for a combination of tax increases and budget cuts and the proponents of the ill-fated Ballot Measure 97 have come out with another proposal to raise billions in new tax revenue from Oregon’s businesses.
Sadly, the part of the conversation that would likely boost small-business optimism in Oregon the most is conspicuously absent; that is, an effort on the part of those with the most political power and influence to restrain themselves – to make government less of a burden on the productive, wealth-building private sector, and more of a partner to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes.
Nationally, the optimism numbers show that small-business owners are encouraged that a big change in the country’s leadership is an opportunity to address the federal policies that have been plaguing small-business growth for years: taxes, regulations, and out-of-control health-care costs.
Here in Oregon, small businesses might be able to share in the optimism if only we had assurances that there are similar opportunities to change course, to help our small businesses thrive, and to focus the efforts of policymakers on ways to control and contain the cost of government rather than continually asking the private sector to pay more, with no definition of “enough” in mind.
Ever optimistic,
Anthony K. Smith
State Director
NFIB/Oregon
