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Small Business Economic Trends - May 2011

Date: May 10, 2011

The month of April marked a second consecutive month of decline in small-business optimism; NFIB’s index dropped to 91.2 in April – a much smaller dip than the previous month, but still another sign of the nation’s anemic economic recovery. While reports of net jobs created by small firms stayed positive, the numbers posted did not match the surprising gains cited in last week’s Labor Department report. This suggests that the bulk of new hiring is happening in larger firms and the smaller counterparts on Main Street—the ones traditionally responsible for leading the country out of recessions, are still struggling to hire.

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NFIB Optimism Index - May 2011“While it’s too early to say that a trend has emerged, a second consecutive month of decline in small-business optimism does very little to encourage further confidence in a strong economic recovery,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Owners simply find no reason to be optimistic about the future and therefore they find no reason to pick up the pace of spending and hiring. It’s difficult to know exactly why the outlook for small firms is in decline; but it’s a safe bet that political and economic uncertainty—about the deficit, the threat of inflation, rising energy and health care costs—are at top of the mind for most small-business owners. Who is going to stay positive in this turbulent political environment?”

April’s report did not differ significantly from the previous month’s. But despite the generally subdued April reading, two notable changes emerged, although neither are index indicators. First, small businesses posted a substantial increase in the number of owners who reported raising selling prices. And second, the net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales over the past three months improved 7 points to a net negative 5%, the best reading since December 2007. 

Some other highlights of April’s Optimism Index include:
 

  • The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in six months slipped another 3 points to negative 8%, 18 percentage points worse than in January. Uncertainty is the enemy, and there is plenty of it to convince owners to “keep their powder dry”.
  • Higher earnings were reported in April, improving 6 points and registering a net negative 26%.  While not a positive number, it is a greatly improved number for the small-business bottom line. Not seasonally adjusted, 15% reported profits higher (up 4 points), but 47% reported profits falling (down 2 points).
  • In April, a net 12% reported raising average selling prices, a 3 point gain from March and 23 points higher than last September. A net 24% planned hikes in average selling prices in April. A major force behind the price hikes is the elimination of inventory excesses which appeared in 2008 when consumers decided to raise their saving rate.
  • Only 50% of all firms reported making capital outlays last month, down 1 point from the month prior. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next three to six months fell 3 points to 21%, a recession level reading.  Money is cheap, but most owners are not interested in a loan to finance equipment they don’t need.  Prospects are still uncertain enough to discourage any but the most profitable and promising investments.


The May 10 report is based on the responses of 1,985 randomly sampled small businesses in NFIB’s membership, surveyed throughout the month of April.
 

Based on Ten Survey Indicators
(Seasonally Adjusted 1986=100)
 
  Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2005 103.7 103.7 102.5 99.8 100.8 100.8 101.1 100.9 100.0 103.7 101.2 101.4
2006 101.1 101.5 98.0 100.1 98.5 96.7 98.1 95.9 99.4 100.7 99.7 96.5
2007 98.9 98.2 97.3 96.8 97.2 96.0 97.6 96.3 97.3 96.2 94.4 94.6
2008 91.8 92.9 89.6 91.5 89.3 89.2 88.2 91.1 92.9 87.5 87.8 85.2
2009 84.1 82.6 81.0 86.8 88.9 87.9 86.5 88.6 88.8 89.1 88.3 88.0
2010 89.3 88.0 86.8 90.6 92.2 89.0 88.1 88.8 89.0 91.7 93.2 92.6
2011 94.1 94.5 91.9 91.2                

 Index Components

  Index Component Seasonally Adjusted Level Change from Last Month
  Plans to Increase Employment 2% 0
  Plans to Make Capital Outlays 21% -3
  Plans to Increase Inventories -1% -2
  Expect Economy to Improve -8% -3
  Expect Real Sales Higher 5% -1
  Current Inventory 1% 2
  Current Job Openings 14% -1
  Expected Credit Conditions -13% -4
  Now a Good Time to Expand 5% -1
  Earnings Trend -26% -6
  Total Change   -7

 

Summary


LABOR MARKETS

Fourteen (14) percent (seasonally adjusted) reported unfilled job openings (down 1 point).  Over the next three months, 16 percent plan to increase employment (down 2 points), and 6 percent plan to reduce their workforce (unchanged), yielding a seasonally adjusted net 2 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, unchanged from March but a very weak reading. 

CAPITAL SPENDING 

The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months fell 1 point to 50 percent of all firms. Of those making expenditures, 35 percent reported spending on new equipment (up 1 point), 18 percent acquired vehicles (up 1 point), and 11 percent improved or expanded facilities (down 1 point).  Three percent acquired new buildings or land for expansion (down 1 point) and 11 percent spent money for new fixtures and furniture (unchanged).  Capital spending remains historically low in spite of very low interest rates and all sorts of expensing incentives.  The problem is that “cheaper” equipment is still no bargain if you can’t use it.

The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next three to six months fell 3 points to 21 percent, a recession level reading.  Money is cheap, but most owners are not interested in a loan to finance equipment they don’t need.  Prospects are still uncertain enough to discourage any but the most profitable and promising investments.  Four percent characterized the current period as a good time to expand facilities (seasonally adjusted), down 1 point from March and 4 points lower than January.  The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions in 6 months slipped another 3 points to negative 8 percent, 18 percentage points worse than in January.  Uncertainty is the enemy, and there is plenty of it to convince owners to “keep their powder dry”.  Apparently consumers feel much the same way, as more customers spending more money would overcome the reluctance of owners to hire and make capital outlays.  One in four still cite “weak sales” as their top business problem.

NFIB Small Business Outlook - May 2011 report

INVENTORIES AND SALES

The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales over the past three months did improve by 7 percentage point to a net negative 5 percent, the best reading in 40 months.
But consumer sentiment is stuck in the mud as gas and food prices continue to rise, and many consumers still suffer from heavy debt and mortgage payments which depress their spending. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales fell 1 point to a net 5 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted), 8 points below January’s reading.  This is bad news for hiring and inventory investment. A net negative 9 percent of all owners reported growth in inventories (seasonally adjusted), a 2 point deterioration. Small business owners continued to liquidate inventories but at one of the lowest frequency in 35 months. For all firms, a net 1 percent (up 2 points) reported stocks too low, historically one of the most “satisfied” readings in survey history. Owners are happy with current stocks, but that is relative to expected sales which are not strong. Plans to add to inventories lost 2 points, falling to a net negative 1 percent of all firms (seasonally adjusted), consistent with the strong reading on satisfaction with current stocks.  

INFLATION 

In April, the percentage rose to 12 percent, a gain of 36 percentage points from the low reading in 2009 and, a more recent perspective, 23 points higher than last September. A net 24 percent planned hikes in average selling prices in April. The “fire sale” is over and selling prices are now on the rise, giving a boost to profit trends in April (although much more is needed). 

PROFITS AND WAGES 

Reports of positive earnings trends improved 6 points in April, registering a net negative 26 percent, still an ugly number but sales trends improved and fewer owners cut selling prices, both positive for the bottom line.
Seasonally adjusted, a net 9 percent reported raising worker compensation, up 2 points. A seasonally adjusted 7 percent plan to raise compensation, down 2 points. 

CREDIT MARKETS   

Overall, 92 percent reported that all their credit needs were met or that they were not interested in borrowing.  Eight percent reported that not all of their credit needs were satisfied. Three percent reported financing as their #1 business problem, so “credit supply” is not a problem for the overwhelming majority. For the banks with money to lend, “credit demand” is weak. The historically high percent of owners who cite weak sales means that, for many owners, investments in new equipment or new workers are not likely to “pay back”.  This is a major cause for the lack of credit demand observed in financial markets along with the deficiency in housing starts, a million units below “normal”. Thirty-two percent of all owners reported borrowing on a regular basis, 4 points above the record low. 


COMMENTARY
 

The “get up and go” usually present in the small business sector after a recession “got up and went” somewhere. For the small business sector, this is the worst recovery on record.  The recovery in the small business indicators looks especially anemic in comparison to the recovery after the 1980-82 recession period, the era with a depth most comparable to our most recent experience. The explanation for this is murky and complex, driven by the “seeds of destruction” planted in the 2003-07 expansion. When stock market bubbles burst, winners and losers are quickly identified and the economy moves on as the redistribution in wealth is efficiently imposed by the market.  This time around, the process of declaring winners and losers is  impeded by the complications of mortgage finance concocted by the financial market and the efforts of the government to prevent the redistribution required. 

Houses are more widely held than stocks and the crash has impacted many more people and reached far down the income distribution, impacting attitudes as well as the ability to spend. Savers’ incomes have been impaired by the Fed’s low rate policies. The over-supply of houses, business facilities and inventory weigh heavily on new construction and until recently, production. Although much lower, the ratio of consumer debt to income is still high, families not actually in foreclosure are still saddled with high mortgage payments.

And then there’s Washington. Enough said, not enough room to detail the detrimental impact of the uncertainty created by “leadership” there.

Unemployment remains high because in the boom, employment was too high and especially in construction where excessive levels of employees created such high output that it impeded their re-employment in the recovery. The much vaunted “risk managers” at financial institutions failed, and their institutions would have as well had they not been “bailed out”.  Owners report that inventories are now in balance with expected sales, but these expectations are muted, providing little reason to hire more workers.  Capital spending remains low because the prospects of generating the additional sales needed to pay off loans used to finance expansion are not good.  Selling prices are rising sharply not because costs are rising but because the “fire sale” needed to bring inventories and excess retail capacity into balance is about over.  New construction and services are labor intensive and dominated by small firms.  Spending must recover here to get employment up and running.  Maybe after consumers are through buying cars they will get their nails done.

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