Bleak Summer Forecast for Business

Date: July 14, 2015

The business climate is suffering the consequences of a storm of new policies and regulations.

U.S. businesses are feeling a heat wave of new rules and regulations enacted in the last month, and it shows in small business confidence. Small business optimism dropped to its lowest level in more than a year, according to NFIB’s latest Small Business Economic Trends report.

After a series of policies and court decisions about overtime pay, Obamacare penalties and the Environmental Protection Agency, the business climate in the coming months is foggy, according to Bloomberg Business. But not all the news is bad, especially when we look to the rest of the world.

The Greek crisis, which has European Union member countries worried about fiscal stability, shouldn’t have too many consequences for the U.S., except for a manageable degree of market volatility, financial experts say.  

But new policies at home could have a big impact on small biz, Bloomberg reported. The Supreme Court decision against a set of EPA regulations on coal plants is expected to have positive effects in the short run. With the court ruling that the EPA didn’t consider the costs and benefits of compliance with their restrictions on coal emissions, environmental regulations may begin to lean toward business in the future.

In addition, new overtime pay policies announced by the Department of Labor raise the threshold for workers eligible for overtime pay from those who make $455 a week to those who make $970 a week, Bloomberg reported. Almost 11 million employees are expected to be eligible for increased pay, while small biz owners, especially in retail and the restaurant industry, are bracing themselves for the potentially devastating impact.

And most recently, an IRS regulation that penalizes owners who reimburse workers for their individual healthcare plans or costs could be facing fees of up to $100 a day, or $36,500 a year. The fines, which have people on both sides of the aisle baffled, could be enough to knock out a number of businesses, some say. 

“It’s the biggest penalty that no one is talking about,” NFIB Policy Director Kevin Kuhlman told Bloomberg. “The penalty for compensating employees for healthcare-related expenses is enough to destroy most small businesses. It’s hard to believe Congress or the president intended to punish employers much more severely for actually helping their workers. Nevertheless, that’s the consequence, and most small businesses don’t know it.”

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